Archive for August, 2008

New Maunder Minimum?

08/30/2008

“The number of sunspots visible on the Sun normally shows an 11-year periodicity, and the current sunspot cycle (cycle 23) had a maximum in 2001, and is entering a minimum phase with few sunspots currently visible. Our data show that there are additional changes occurring in sunspots, independent of the sunspot cycle, and these trends suggest that sunspots will disappear completely. Such an event would not be unprecedented, since during a famous episode from 1645-1715, known as the Maunder Minimum, the normal 11-year periodicity vanished and there were virtually no sunspots visible on the solar surface (1). Recent studies of the appearance rate and latitudinal drift of sunspots (2) and of the solar magnetic field (3) predict that the number of sunspots visible in future cycles will be significantly reduced. Finally the occurrence of prolonged periods with no sunspots is important to climate studies, since the Maunder Minimum was shown to correspond with the reduced average global temperatures on the Earth (4).” “Sunspots may vanish by 2015

This unpublished paper, rejected by Nature in 2006, is by two scientists at the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak.

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The ball is in Bush's court

08/30/2008

“The offshore oil and gas and Rocky Mountain oil shale development ban days are numbered – 35 days and counting, to be specific. That’s because the bans expire at the end of this fiscal year, Sept. 30, and come October there is nothing in current law that prevents green-lighting the leasing and exploration process. President Bush has persistently called on Congress to act on drilling, but the ball is now in his court, not theirs. If he pledges to veto an extension of the ban, opponents of oil drilling will have no other option but to cave in, because veto-sustaining blocks in both Houses of Congress have made their commitment to allowing the ban to end, clear in writing.” “Drilling down on the drill ban

Prior post here.

Ocean temperature determines atmospheric temperature

08/30/2008

“Evidence is presented that the recent worldwide land warming has occurred largely in response to a worldwide warming of the oceans rather than as a direct response to increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) over land. Atmospheric model simulations of the last half-century with prescribed observed ocean temperature changes, but without prescribed GHG changes, account for most of the land warming. …

Indeed we find compelling evidence from several atmospheric general circulation model simulations without prescribed GHG, aerosol, and solar forcing variations (Table 1) that the continental warming in Fig. 1a is largely a response to the warming of the oceans rather than directly due to GHG increases over the continents (Table 2). …

In summary, our results emphasize the significant role of remote oceanic influences, rather than the direct local effect of anthropogenic radiative forcings, in the recent continental warming.” “Oceanic Influences on Recent Continental Warming

Ocean temperature determines atmospheric CO2 concentration

08/30/2008


“In the past, sea temperatures were obtained from measurements by passing ships in the sea lanes of the world. It is only in the past three decades that more accurate data on sea surface temperatures has become available. The analysis of this recent data by the author shows that:

— the oceans regulate the composition of the
atmosphere;

— the influence on climate of human-generated carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is negligible; and

— global climate change has natural causes.

The oceans and the atmosphere are quite shallow in relation to the vast surface area of the oceans. The interaction of the atmosphere and the oceans is essentially a phenomenon of the ocean surface. It would be expected that there would be almost a direct correlation between levels of CO2 in the air and the global mean sea surface temperatures, and that is the case. …

The chart shows that the CO2 levels in the atmosphere and global average sea surface temperatures are locked together. The correlation is so firm it is reasonable to include it as a condition in the computer simulations used to study climate change. …

Global average sea surface temperatures are now starting to fall. It is reasonable to contemplate that sea temperatures may gradually decline towards the average of the previous century. That would be a drop of about 0.35˚C. That would mean that atmospheric CO2 levels would also similarly decline towards the average of the past century.” “Carbon dioxide and the oceans

More of the same crap from the CCSP

08/30/2008

“A perversion of science” — Pat Michaels

Steve McIntyre notes that the report features Mann’s infamous creation, the thoroughly debunked “hockey stick” temperature graph, on p. 2.

“A new all-time low for NOAA” — Joe D’Aleo

“As a result we do not have a unified synthesis product but a document that promotes a particular narrow perspective on climate science based on the prejudices of the Editors” — Roger Pielke, Sr.

“This comment therefore focuses on one fundamental issue that must be corrected if the report is to have any credibility. Data integrity problems contaminate the historical record that is the underpinning of the entire report.” — Joe D’Aleo

“The CCSP established a rigorous process for the writing and editing of its reports in order to limit the ability of political appointees to massage the report in desired directions. But apparently the CCSP review process has left a gaping hole for a single non-governmental, non-technical, non-expert to shape the report in politically desirable ways.

On an issue as high politicized as climate change, where bloggers and others are paying close attention, the inclusion of a doctored image, the cribbing of an old, misleading figure, and the inclusion of an editor’s personal views in the guise of a science assessment is remarkable, even in a draft for public comment. Even if the excuse is plain old sloppiness, the report is a big fat black eye for the world’s leading climate science program.” — Roger Pielke, Jr.

“To say the least, I’m shocked that NCDC’s leadership has changed from being the nation’s record keeper of weather and climatic data, to being what appears to me now as an advocacy group. The draft document reads more like a news article in many places than it does a scientific document, and unlike a scientific document, it has a number of what I would call “emotionally based graphics” in it that have nothing to do with the science.” — Anthony Watts

A striking feature of the Report is a unilateral presentation of information, with an almost exclusive concentration on greenhouse gases, and particularly on the man-made emissions of carbon dioxide, as the dominant cause of the Modern Warm Period. The Report totally ignores studies which disagree with the man-made warming hypothesis.” — Zbigniew Jaworowski

“If this nation is to develop an effective climate change policy it needs to be grounded on sound science. Asking the public to comment on documents it has not seen is about as far from the scientific method as one can possibly get. The public deserves scientific information if it is to validate this report.” — Bill Kovacs, U.S. Chamber of Commerce

“This … CCSP report is Co-Chaired by Thomas R. Karl, Jerry Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson with the Senior Editor and Synthesis Team Coordinator Susan J. Hassol. These are the same individuals who have led past CCSP reports … with Tom Karl and Tom Peterson deliberately excluding scientific perspectives that differ from their viewpoints … Susan Hassol was writer of the HBO Special “Too Hot Not to Handle”. This HBO show clearly had a specific perspective on the climate change issue, and lacked a balanced perspective. The HBO Executive Producer was Ms. Laurie David. As a result, this report continues the biased narrow perspective of the earlier CCSP reports …

Thus the conclusion is that the US CCSP Program has failed in it’s mission. These reports have become state and in-bred, since the same people are repeating their perspective on the climate issue. …

As recommended in the Climate Science weblog … we need new scientists who are not encumbered by their prior advocacy positions on climate change to lead the preparation of balanced climate assessment reports.

The response of the media when this report is released in its final form will also be enlightening. Those reporters who parrot the synthesis without questioning its obvious bias and conflict of interest should be identified as sycophants. Those who adequately communicate the diversity of scientifically supported disagreements with the report should be lauded for the true journalist that they are.” — Roger Pielke, Sr.

Apparently NOAA, NCDC, and CCSP got the message. They have yanked the report: “Climate Report Held Following Exposure“; “Skeptics win one! NOAA/NCDC to hold the CCSP report“.

David Archibald on solar minimum and global cooling

08/30/2008


“It is apparent that Solar Cycle 23 is a long one. I agree with Jan Janssens’ spotless day-derived result of month of minimum being July 2009. If Solar Cycle 24 is as weak as I think it will be, then it will have a slow ramp up – much slower than the late 19th century cycles used for comparison.

This leads to another point. Solar cycles generally have four years of rise and seven years of decline. Solar Cycle 5 (the first half of the Dalton Minimum) had 6.9 years of rise and 5.4 years of decline. If Solar Cycle 24 mimics Solar Cycle 4 in this way, then year of maximum will be 2016, four years after the latest estimate from NASA’s solar prediction panel. …

Each day’s passing of anaemic Solar Cycle 24 sunspot activity reinforces the imminent cooling.

The above graph is for a 13 year Solar Cycle 23. If it turns out to be 13.6 years, that will result in a further 0.4 degree decline.” “Progression of Solar Cycle 23/24 Minimum

The "Greenland is melting!" scare debunked

08/30/2008


Recently the New York Times published an alarmist article by Stephan Ferris, “Ice Free“, warning of the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet and accompanying sea level rise of 23 feet. Debunked here by Joe D’Aleo: “Greenland Again

Marc Morano’s round-up of global cooling articles

08/30/2008

Global Cooling: Global Warming has Ended – Many Scientists Say

New Maunder Minimum?

08/30/2008

“The number of sunspots visible on the Sun normally shows an 11-year periodicity, and the current sunspot cycle (cycle 23) had a maximum in 2001, and is entering a minimum phase with few sunspots currently visible. Our data show that there are additional changes occurring in sunspots, independent of the sunspot cycle, and these trends suggest that sunspots will disappear completely. Such an event would not be unprecedented, since during a famous episode from 1645-1715, known as the Maunder Minimum, the normal 11-year periodicity vanished and there were virtually no sunspots visible on the solar surface (1). Recent studies of the appearance rate and latitudinal drift of sunspots (2) and of the solar magnetic field (3) predict that the number of sunspots visible in future cycles will be significantly reduced. Finally the occurrence of prolonged periods with no sunspots is important to climate studies, since the Maunder Minimum was shown to correspond with the reduced average global temperatures on the Earth (4).” “Sunspots may vanish by 2015

This unpublished paper, rejected by Nature in 2006, is by two scientists at the National Solar Observatory at Kitt Peak.

The ball is in Bush’s court

08/30/2008

“The offshore oil and gas and Rocky Mountain oil shale development ban days are numbered – 35 days and counting, to be specific. That’s because the bans expire at the end of this fiscal year, Sept. 30, and come October there is nothing in current law that prevents green-lighting the leasing and exploration process. President Bush has persistently called on Congress to act on drilling, but the ball is now in his court, not theirs. If he pledges to veto an extension of the ban, opponents of oil drilling will have no other option but to cave in, because veto-sustaining blocks in both Houses of Congress have made their commitment to allowing the ban to end, clear in writing.” “Drilling down on the drill ban

Prior post here.