IPCC the outlier, as usual

“Over decades of research, multiple peer-reviewed studies have been conducted to measure the maximum amount of time that CO2 remains in the atmosphere before being recycled by the oceans. Almost all studies have determined that the maximum time is less than 15 years, with the majority of studies indicating under 10 years. See graph to left.
The IPCC chose to assume CO2 remained in the atmosphere for up to 100 years (red bar in graph). If a shorter residence time was assumed, the IPCC climate models would not be able to predict the accelerated warming that is hypothesized to be caused by human CO2 emissions.
The IPCC choice of 100 years is based on no physical evidence (observations, measurements, etc.).
The background chart is the familiar temperature versus CO2 chart that shows CO2 steadily rising while global temperatures are declining. This is the exact opposite of IPCC climate models’ predictions. A principal reason for the climate models’ failures is the false assumption about CO2 atmospheric longevity they are based on.” “Maximum ‘residence time’ of atmospheric CO2” h/t Jennifer Marohasy

No Responses to “IPCC the outlier, as usual”

  1. Ferdinand Engelbeen Says:

    John,Jennifer simply copied this graph from somebody else. But the graph is wrong.The left residence times are about how long in average a single molecule (whatever the origin) remains in the atmosphere before being captured by oceans or vegetation. That is governed by the exchange rate of about 150 GtC/year on a CO2 content of 800 GtC in the atmosphere.The IPCC residence time is about the average reduction time to remove an excess mass of CO2 (whatever the origin) from the atmosphere. That is governed by the difference in sources and sinks of CO2. Without our emissions, that would currently be 4 GtC/year, quite a difference with the 150 GtC/year of the first definition.Thus the two are not comparable and have no connection with each other at all. What is discutable is the long tail of the IPCC average residence time (hundreds of years). Peter Dietze at John Daly's web site finds a much shorter half life time of about 38 years for excess CO2 in the atmosphere:http://www.john-daly.com/carbon.htm

  2. jblethen Says:

    Right you are, my bad. See Ferdinand's explanation here and Dietze's here.

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