Archive for the ‘Antarctic’ Category

Refutation of Steig et al. 2009 finally published

12/07/2010

Ryan O’Donnell, Nicholas Lewis, Steve McIntyre (Climate Audit), and Jeff Condon (The Air Vent) have finally succeeded in running the gauntlet of reviewers (one hostile Hockey Team reviewer, actually) to publish their paper in the Journal of Climate refuting the results of Steig, et al., who had claimed statistically significant warming in West Antarctica in their 2009 Nature paper.  Steve and Jeff had previously refuted Steig’s results in their blogs (links above), but publishing in a peer-reviewed journal will overcome the usual objections.

Excerpt from Climate Audit:

“Substantively, what is actually left of [Steig’s] signature results about the West Antarctic, which were:

Assessments of Antarctic temperature change have emphasized the contrast between strong warming of the Antarctic Peninsula and slight cooling of the Antarctic continental interior in recent decades… Here we show that significant warming extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsula to cover most of West Antarctica, an area of warming much larger than previously reported. West Antarctic warming exceeds 0.1 deg C per decade over the past 50 years, and is strongest in winter and spring.

Nothing. Steig’s West Antarctic warming results from a spreading of warming in the Peninsula to the West Antarctic through choices made in their principal components. Different choices – ones more plausible in the circumstances – lead to opposite results.”

Even more interesting is the “abusive peer review process” which had to be overcome in order to get the paper published.  Excerpt from Climate Audit:

“After an abusive peer review process in which the Team were evidently involved, an article has been accepted by Journal of Climate (O’Donnell [Ryan O], Lewis [Nic L], McIntyre and Condon [Jeff Id]) refuting the West Antarctic claims of Steig et al 2009.  …

The gauntlet that had to be run shows that practices in climate science journals remain unchanged despite Climategate.  … In this case, the Journal of Climate appointed a reviewer – or shall we say a representative of a Team of reviewers – whose energy in attempting to suppress the article went far beyond an unconflicted reviewer. Ultimately, the reviews and responses totalled 88 pages! And Andy Revkin and others blame critical authors for not running such gauntlets.  …

The gauntlet that was created in this particular incident had nothing to do with additional due diligence occasioned by perhaps overturning a well established result. Steig’s results, showing West Antarctic as a particular locus of warming, were themselves novel and, if anything, contradicted prior views of Peninsula warming. Our results were straightforward – the 88 pages of review and response were nothing more than obstruction, “going to town” on the comment rather than the original article.”

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AP journo in wonderland

04/07/2010

What planet is this AP journo living on?

“The European Space Agency is launching a satellite that scientists hope will help them pin down the effects of global warming on the Earth’s ice packs more precisely.

The CryoSat 2 mission, which starts Thursday after years of delays, will be able to pinpoint details of changes in polar ice so scientists can better understand the alarming picture of the world’s retreating ice caps.  …

For coastal cities and islands, the information may be a question of survival.

If all of the Earth’s polar ice and glaciers were to melt, sea levels could rise up to 230 feet (70 meters), Miller said.

If only Greenland became ice-free, it would mean a 21.33-foot (6.5-meter) rise, he said.”  “EU satellite to check climate change impact on ice

Meanwhile, on planet Earth, arctic sea ice is at its 30-year average, antarctic sea ice continues to grow, and:

“The extent of sea ice over the Arctic Ocean grew until the last day of March, the latest the annual melting season has begun in 31 years of satellite records, the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center said.”  “Arctic Sea Ice Melting Season Posts Latest Start on Record

Svensmark explains the antarctic climate anomoly

03/29/2010

“Low-level clouds cover more than a quarter of the Earth and exert a strong cooling effect at the surface.  … Cloud tops have a high albedo and exert their cooling effect by scattering back into the cosmos much of the sunlight that could otherwise warm the surface.

But the snows on the Antarctic ice sheets are dazzlingly white, with a higher albedo than the cloud tops. There, extra cloud cover warms the surface, and less cloudiness cools it.  Satellite measurements show the warming effect of clouds on Antarctica, and meteorologists at far southern latitudes confirm it by observation.  …

The cosmic-ray and cloud-forcing hypothesis therefore predicts that temperature changes in Antarctica should be opposite in sign to changes in temperature in the rest of the world. This is exactly what is observed, in a well-known phenomenon that some geophysicists have called the polar see-saw, but for which “the Antarctic climate anomaly” seems a better name (Svensmark 2007).

To account for evidence spanning many thousands of years from drilling sites in Antarctica and Greenland, which show many episodes of climate change going in opposite directions, ad hoc hypotheses on offer involve major reorganization of ocean currents. While they might be possible explanations for low-resolution climate records, with error-bars of centuries, they cannot begin to explain the rapid operation of the Antarctic climate anomaly from decade to decade as seen in the 20th century (figure 6).

Cloud forcing is by far the most economical explanation of the anomaly on all timescales.  Indeed, absence of the anomaly would have been a decisive argument against cloud forcing – which introduces a much-needed element of refutability into climate science.”  “Cosmoclimatology:  a new theory emerges”  h/t WUWT

More alarmism from USGS

02/22/2010

Keep in mind that the Antarctic Peninsula is the only part of Antarctica that is warming, that the warming is caused by changes in ocean currents, not “global warming”, that the continent as a whole is on a 50-year cooling trend, and that the peninsula is only 5% of the area of Antarctica.  Yet USGS paints a scenario where warming in the small northerly peninsula is going to cause the entire massive antarctic ice sheet to flow into the ocean causing a sea level rise which will “threaten coastal communities and low-lying islands worldwide”.  Your tax dollars paid for this propaganda:

“Ice shelves are retreating in the southern section of the Antarctic Peninsula due to climate change. This could result in glacier retreat and sea-level rise if warming continues, threatening coastal communities and low-lying islands worldwide.  …

The ice shelves are attached to the continent and already floating, holding in place the Antarctic ice sheet that covers about 98 percent of the Antarctic continent. As the ice shelves break off, it is easier for outlet glaciers and ice streams from the ice sheet to flow into the sea. The transition of that ice from land to the ocean is what raises sea level.

“The loss of ice shelves is evidence of the effects of global warming …” [said USGS scientist Jane Ferrigno].”  “Ice Shelves Disappearing on Antarctic Peninsula

Antarctic sea ice gate

02/17/2010

“And just in case further evidence is needed, [a] recent 2009 paper by Turner et al. (on which Comiso was a co-author), concluded that:

Based on a new analysis of passive microwave satellite data, we demonstrate that the annual mean extent of Antarctic sea ice has increased at a statistically significant rate of 0.97% dec-1 since the late 1970s.

This rate of increase is nearly twice as great as the value given in the [UN IPCC’s] AR4 (from its non-peer-reviewed source).

So, the peer reviewed literature, both extant at the time of the AR4 as well as published since the release of the AR4, shows that there has been a significant increase in the extent of sea ice around Antarctica since the time of the first satellite observations observed in the late 1970s. And yet the AR4 somehow “assessed” the evidence and determined not only that the increase was only half the rate established in the peer-reviewed literature, but also that it was statistically insignificant as well. And thus, the increase in sea ice in the Antarctic was downplayed in preference to highlighting the observed decline in sea ice in the Arctic.

It is little wonder why, considering that the AR4 found that “Sea ice is projected to shrink in both the Arctic and Antarctic under all SRES scenarios.””  “Another IPCC error:  antarctic sea ice increase underestimated by 50%

Who's in denial?

01/11/2010

“[Antarctica is] not melting anything like as much as expected [by alarmists]. In fact, during the continent’s summer this time last year, there was less melting than at any time in the 30 years that we have had reliable satellite measurements of the region.  …

John King of the British Antarctic Survey, based in Cambridge, warned against misinterpreting the lack of summer warming.

“Climate change denialists will use this work as evidence that Antarctica is not warming, despite the authors saying their works show no such thing,” he said.”  “Why Antarctica Isn’t Melting Much — Yet

More nonsense from CBD

01/06/2010

““While sea ice melts away and the oceans warm, the Obama administration is frozen in inaction. Instead of protecting penguins and taking meaningful steps to address global warming,” said Shaye Wolf, a biologist with the Center for Biological Diversity, “our government is dragging its feet while penguins are marching toward extinction.“”  “Suit to Be Filed Over Delay in Protection for Penguins Hurt by Climate Change and Industrial Fisheries

Adjusting Antarctica

12/14/2009

“Of the original 110 dataseries, only 18 are left. The original 2700+ datapoints are down to around 600. And what do you know – the series shows a whopping slope of 0.0447 which would mean a trend of 4.47 degrees of warming per century! I am sorry boys and girls, but there simply is no way in HELL that you can “accidentally” remove all series that show less of an upward trend, and settle for 18 of the most upward trending series (thus raising the warming / century by 3 degrees!). I don’t know how they do things with the GHCN dataset, or who is responsible for this, but just like New Zealand this is pretty damning evidence that all the “adjustments” are done to deliberately corrupt data to cause specific trends.” “GHCN Antarctica : Careful selection of data

“So as we can see, of all the stations available in the antarctic, GHCN has chosen to use a single station on the Antarctic Peninsula to represent an entire continent of the earth for the past 17 years (red circle). But it’s not just any station, it’s a special one. Rothera Point has the single highest trend of any of the adjusted station data.

I’m sick to death of advocate scientists pretending there are only minimal problems in the temperature record. Currently the ‘homogenized’ value added version of GHCN has a trend that is EIGHT times higher than actual for the ENTIRE ANTARCTIC CONTINENT.” “GHCN Antarctic, 8X actual trend — uses single warmest station

Adjusting Antarctica

12/14/2009

“Of the original 110 dataseries, only 18 are left. The original 2700+ datapoints are down to around 600. And what do you know – the series shows a whopping slope of 0.0447 which would mean a trend of 4.47 degrees of warming per century! I am sorry boys and girls, but there simply is no way in HELL that you can “accidentally” remove all series that show less of an upward trend, and settle for 18 of the most upward trending series (thus raising the warming / century by 3 degrees!). I don’t know how they do things with the GHCN dataset, or who is responsible for this, but just like New Zealand this is pretty damning evidence that all the “adjustments” are done to deliberately corrupt data to cause specific trends.” “GHCN Antarctica : Careful selection of data

“So as we can see, of all the stations available in the antarctic, GHCN has chosen to use a single station on the Antarctic Peninsula to represent an entire continent of the earth for the past 17 years (red circle). But it’s not just any station, it’s a special one. Rothera Point has the single highest trend of any of the adjusted station data.

I’m sick to death of advocate scientists pretending there are only minimal problems in the temperature record. Currently the ‘homogenized’ value added version of GHCN has a trend that is EIGHT times higher than actual for the ENTIRE ANTARCTIC CONTINENT.” “GHCN Antarctic, 8X actual trend — uses single warmest station

Latest from the clergy: humans cause Antarctic cooling

12/02/2009

“A HUGE hole in the ozone layer has protected Antarctica from the impacts of global warming, according to scientists. The temperature across Antarctica has not risen over the past 30 years [it has cooled] and there has been a 10 per cent increase in the amount of sea ice appearing during winter.

Climate change sceptics regularly cite the lack of warming in Antarctica as evidence global warming is not happening.

However, researchers have now explained the phenomenon – they believe that a hole in the ozone layer above the continent has altered weather patterns and temperatures.

The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research [SCARE] carried out the first comprehensive review of the state of Antarctica’s climate. Their report, Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment, is published today.

Professor John Turner of the British Antarctic Survey, lead editor of the report, said: “For me the most astonishing evidence is the way that one man-made environmental impact – the ozone hole – has shielded most of Antarctica from another – global warming.”” “Antarctica protected from global warming by hole in ozone layer

Only one problem — the anthropogenic antarctic ozone hole theory is toast and solar-magnetic-field-modulated cosmic rays may be responsible (here and here).