Archive for the ‘global cooling’ Category

Global warming in California

06/05/2011

“Spring passed California by, and summer remains in hiding.  …

A giant Sierra snowpack, still frozen fast, has put innumerable summer adventures on hold.  …

And it’s not over yet: Sacramento can expect as much as another 1.4 inches of rain this weekend and temperatures 20 degrees below normal, with more mountain snow.  …

One theory gaining traction is that climate change, in fact, may be to blame.

The theory was developed in several published papers by Judah Cohen, an atmospheric scientist in Massachusetts.  …

Colder and snowier winters caused by global warming? It may be one of the counterintuitive consequences of climate change, he said.

“We don’t understand everything, and we don’t understand how the different feedbacks affect different parts of the climate system,” said Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, a private firm in Lexington, Mass. “It’s very complicated. So we should expect the unexpected.”  …

“The cooler weather is just not allowing the plants to grow like they should be,” [Jean Miller, assistant agricultural commissioner in Glenn County] said. “We have the possibility for diseases which we would not normally be having at this time of year, when it should be 80 or 90 degrees.”  …

The statewide snowpack stands at 262 percent of average. Rather than shrinking, as it normally would by this date, the snowpack has held steady and even grown deeper in places with new storms.  …

The state’s reservoirs are brim-full, yet the snowpack still has to melt. This could lead to flooding problems, especially on the San Joaquin and Kings rivers, said Rob Hartman, hydrologist-in-charge at the California-Nevada River Forecast Center, a branch of the National Weather Service.

The peak of spring snowmelt, Hartman said, is probably now delayed to late June or early July – at least a full month late.”  “Researcher says climate change may be cooling California

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Earth the same temperature now as 30 years ago — and decreasing

02/03/2011

UAH Update for January 2011: Global Temperatures in Freefall

Roy Spencer shock quote: Snowstorms caused by global cooling!

02/02/2011

“No serious climate researcher — including the ones I disagree with — believes global warming can cause colder weather. Unless they have become delusional as a result of some sort of mental illness. One of the hallmarks of global warming theory is LESS extratropical cyclone activity — not more.  …

Global average temperature anomalies (departures from seasonal norms) have been falling precipitously for about 12 months now. Gee, maybe these snowstorms are from global cooling! Someone should look into that! (I know…cold and snow from global cooling sounds crazy….I’m just sayin’….)”  “OMG! ANOTHER GLOBAL WARMING SNOWSTORM!!

Japan proxy study validates solar magnetic field climate link during Maunder Minimum

12/08/2010

Synchronized Northern Hemisphere climate change and solar magnetic cycles during the Maunder Minimum

Yasuhiko T. Yamaguchi, Yusuke Yokoyama, Hiroko Miyahara, Kenjiro Sho, and Takeshi Nakatsuka

Abstract:

The Maunder Minimum (A.D. 1645–1715) is a useful period to investigate possible sun–climate linkages as sunspots became exceedingly rare and the characteristics of solar cycles were different from those of today. Here, we report annual variations in the oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of tree-ring cellulose in central Japan during the Maunder Minimum. We were able to explore possible sun–climate connections through high-temporal resolution solar activity (radiocarbon contents; Δ14C) and climate (δ18O) isotope records derived from annual tree rings. The tree-ring δ18O record in Japan shows distinct negative δ18O spikes (wetter rainy seasons) coinciding with rapid cooling in Greenland and with decreases in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature at around minima of decadal solar cycles. We have determined that the climate signals in all three records strongly correlate with changes in the polarity of solar dipole magnetic field, suggesting a causal link to galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These findings are further supported by a comparison between the interannual patterns of tree-ring δ18O record and the GCR flux reconstructed by an ice-core 10Be record. Therefore, the variation of GCR flux associated with the multidecadal cycles of solar magnetic field seem to be causally related to the significant and widespread climate changes at least during the Maunder Minimum.”  h/t Steven Goddard

Lake Eire completely frozen over?

02/15/2010

Maybe that imaginary AGW “warm air” that “holds more moisture” and “leads to more snowfall” is doing this to Lake Eire:

[Lake Eire] is about 90 to 95 percent ice-covered, and more cold temperatures forecast for the next week or so could freeze the entire lake, National Weather Service meteorologists in Cleveland said.

“We’re thinking it probably will ice over the rest of the way,” said weather service meteorologist Karen Oudeman.  …

The lake hasn’t completely frozen over since the winter of 1995-96 … , said George Leshkevich, a scientist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory in Ann Arbor, Mich.  “Lake Erie could freeze over entirely for first time in years

Physicist: mankind needs to start preparing for the ice age

02/11/2010

“A leading scientist has revealed that Europe could be just five years away from the start of a new Ice Age.  …

[R]enowned physicist Vladimir Paar says most of central Europe will soon be covered in ice.  …

Professor Paar, from Croatia’s Zagreb University, has spent decades analysing previous ice ages in Europe and what caused them.  …

“Previous ice ages lasted about 70,000 years. That’s a fact and the new ice age can’t be avoided.  …

“This could happen in five, 10, 50 or 100 years, or even later. We can’t predict it precisely, but it will come,” he added.

And the professor said that scientists think global warming is simply a natural part of the planet.

“What I mean is that global warming is natural. Some 130,000 years ago the earth’s temperature was the same as now, the level of CO2 was almost the same and the level of the sea was four metres higher.  …  ,” he said.

And he added: “The reality is that mankind needs to start preparing for the ice age. We are at the end of the global warming period. The ice age is to follow.  … [W]e do not know precisely when it could start – but soon.””  “Croat scientist warns ice age could start in five years”  h/t Prison Planet

The inevitable end of the Holocene — enjoy it while you can

12/30/2009

“[E]ven [assumed AGW] warming will not stave off the eventual return of huge glaciers, because ice ages last for millennia and fossil fuels will not.In about 300 years, all available fossil fuels may well have been consumed.Over the following centuries, excess carbon dioxide will naturally dissolve into the oceans or get trapped by the formation of carbonate minerals. Such processes won’t be offset by the industrial emissions we see today, and atmospheric carbon dioxide will slowly decline toward preindustrial levels. In about 2,000 years, when the types of planetary motions that can induce polar cooling start to coincide again, the current warming trend will be a distant memory.” “Global Warming vs. the Next Ice Age” h/t FuturePundit

The inevitable end of the Holocene — enjoy it while you can

12/30/2009

“[E]ven [assumed AGW] warming will not stave off the eventual return of huge glaciers, because ice ages last for millennia and fossil fuels will not.In about 300 years, all available fossil fuels may well have been consumed.Over the following centuries, excess carbon dioxide will naturally dissolve into the oceans or get trapped by the formation of carbonate minerals. Such processes won’t be offset by the industrial emissions we see today, and atmospheric carbon dioxide will slowly decline toward preindustrial levels. In about 2,000 years, when the types of planetary motions that can induce polar cooling start to coincide again, the current warming trend will be a distant memory.” “Global Warming vs. the Next Ice Age” h/t FuturePundit

James A. Marusek on solar cycle 24

11/06/2009

“As of the end of October, the cumulative number of spotless days (days without sunspots) in the transition into solar cycle 24 now stands at 745. The transitions into Solar Cycles 16-23, referred to as “recent solar cycles” (years 1923 to ~2008), averaged 362 cumulative spotless days (with a range from 227 to 568 spotless days). Since the current transition now exceeds 568 spotless days, it is very clear that the sun has undergone a state change. The solar “Grand Maxima” state that has persisted during most of the 20th century has come to an abrupt end. The “old solar cycles” (SC 10-15, years 1856 to 1923) averaged 797 spotless days, over twice that of the “recent solar cycles”. Those solar cycle minimums ranged from 406 – 1028 spotless days. If this solar minimum ends soon then the upcoming solar cycle may be similar to these “old solar cycles”.

So far the sun continues to be fairly quiet. This solar minimum acts like the Energizer bunny. It just keeps going, and going, and going.

The Average Magnetic Planetary Index (Ap index) is a proxy measurement for the intensity of solar magnetic activity as it alters the geomagnetic field on Earth. It has been referred to as the common yardstick for solar magnetic activity. An Ap index of “4” was the lowest recorded monthly value since measurements began in January 1932.

Back in January 2009, David Archibald predicted the Ap index would hit a low in October 2009 with a value of “3”. Analysis from past solar cycles shows that the Ap index generally reaches its lowest value approximately a year after the solar sunspot minimum. So the question is how well did he do.

The Ap Index for last month, October, was “2” [correction: “3”]. That is really close in my book. The Ap index had been hovering near rock bottom for 11 months now. Beginning in November 2008, there have been 8 monthly readings of “4” along with 3 monthly readings of “5”. But this month the value broke through the glass ceiling and spawned the lowest AP monthly index value in the past 77 years. So with this transition into solar cycle 24, all the AP monthly records have been broken. The lowest single month value, two consecutive month value, three consecutive month value, etc. All of those records have fallen, swept away in this solar state change.

So what does this all mean? Well, the sun’s interplanetary magnetic field has fallen to around 4 nT (nano Tesla) from a typical value of 6 to 8 nT. The solar winds pressure is down to 50 year lows. And the heliospheric current sheet is flattening. All these changes allow high-energy galactic cosmic rays to penetrate deeper into our solar system. In 2009, cosmic ray intensities have increased 19% beyond anything we’ve seen in the past 50 years, when satellite measurements began. Greater numbers of galactic cosmic rays driving deep into our atmosphere cause greater cloud formation (through ionization) which then results in decreasing surface temperature on Earth. This is because low level clouds reflect sunlight back into space. This is why Northern and Southern hemispheres have experienced unusually cold winters during the past couple years. The influence of the sun’s magnetic field is a force to be reckoned with in natural climate change.

The sun exhibits great variability in the strength of each solar cycle. This variability ranges from extremely quiet “Grand Minima” such as the Maunder Minimum to a very active “Grand Maxima” such as the enhanced activity observed during most of the 20th century. A solar Grand Minima is defined as a period when the (smoothed) sunspot number is less than 15 during at least two consecutive decades. The sun spends about 17 percent of the time in a Grand Minima state. In the past, these periods caused great hardship to humanity and significant loss of life.

Solar Grand Minima events correspond to periods of dramatic natural global cooling. The Maunder Minimum (about 1645-1715 A.D.) and Spörer Minimum (about 1420-1570 A.D.) are two examples of recent “Grand Minima” events and each period has been referred to as a Little Ice Age. During the “Grand Minima” galactic cosmic ray fluxes were at least 200% to 300% higher than anything measured to date.

So each morning I turn on my computer and check to see how the sun is doing. Most days I am still greeted with the message “The sun is blank – no sunspots.”

James A. Marusek” From CCNet 3 November

James A. Marusek on solar cycle 24

11/06/2009

“As of the end of October, the cumulative number of spotless days (days without sunspots) in the transition into solar cycle 24 now stands at 745. The transitions into Solar Cycles 16-23, referred to as “recent solar cycles” (years 1923 to ~2008), averaged 362 cumulative spotless days (with a range from 227 to 568 spotless days). Since the current transition now exceeds 568 spotless days, it is very clear that the sun has undergone a state change. The solar “Grand Maxima” state that has persisted during most of the 20th century has come to an abrupt end. The “old solar cycles” (SC 10-15, years 1856 to 1923) averaged 797 spotless days, over twice that of the “recent solar cycles”. Those solar cycle minimums ranged from 406 – 1028 spotless days. If this solar minimum ends soon then the upcoming solar cycle may be similar to these “old solar cycles”.

So far the sun continues to be fairly quiet. This solar minimum acts like the Energizer bunny. It just keeps going, and going, and going.

The Average Magnetic Planetary Index (Ap index) is a proxy measurement for the intensity of solar magnetic activity as it alters the geomagnetic field on Earth. It has been referred to as the common yardstick for solar magnetic activity. An Ap index of “4” was the lowest recorded monthly value since measurements began in January 1932.

Back in January 2009, David Archibald predicted the Ap index would hit a low in October 2009 with a value of “3”. Analysis from past solar cycles shows that the Ap index generally reaches its lowest value approximately a year after the solar sunspot minimum. So the question is how well did he do.

The Ap Index for last month, October, was “2” [correction: “3”]. That is really close in my book. The Ap index had been hovering near rock bottom for 11 months now. Beginning in November 2008, there have been 8 monthly readings of “4” along with 3 monthly readings of “5”. But this month the value broke through the glass ceiling and spawned the lowest AP monthly index value in the past 77 years. So with this transition into solar cycle 24, all the AP monthly records have been broken. The lowest single month value, two consecutive month value, three consecutive month value, etc. All of those records have fallen, swept away in this solar state change.

So what does this all mean? Well, the sun’s interplanetary magnetic field has fallen to around 4 nT (nano Tesla) from a typical value of 6 to 8 nT. The solar winds pressure is down to 50 year lows. And the heliospheric current sheet is flattening. All these changes allow high-energy galactic cosmic rays to penetrate deeper into our solar system. In 2009, cosmic ray intensities have increased 19% beyond anything we’ve seen in the past 50 years, when satellite measurements began. Greater numbers of galactic cosmic rays driving deep into our atmosphere cause greater cloud formation (through ionization) which then results in decreasing surface temperature on Earth. This is because low level clouds reflect sunlight back into space. This is why Northern and Southern hemispheres have experienced unusually cold winters during the past couple years. The influence of the sun’s magnetic field is a force to be reckoned with in natural climate change.

The sun exhibits great variability in the strength of each solar cycle. This variability ranges from extremely quiet “Grand Minima” such as the Maunder Minimum to a very active “Grand Maxima” such as the enhanced activity observed during most of the 20th century. A solar Grand Minima is defined as a period when the (smoothed) sunspot number is less than 15 during at least two consecutive decades. The sun spends about 17 percent of the time in a Grand Minima state. In the past, these periods caused great hardship to humanity and significant loss of life.

Solar Grand Minima events correspond to periods of dramatic natural global cooling. The Maunder Minimum (about 1645-1715 A.D.) and Spörer Minimum (about 1420-1570 A.D.) are two examples of recent “Grand Minima” events and each period has been referred to as a Little Ice Age. During the “Grand Minima” galactic cosmic ray fluxes were at least 200% to 300% higher than anything measured to date.

So each morning I turn on my computer and check to see how the sun is doing. Most days I am still greeted with the message “The sun is blank – no sunspots.”

James A. Marusek” From CCNet 3 November