Archive for the ‘Milankovitch cycles’ Category

Physicist: mankind needs to start preparing for the ice age

02/11/2010

“A leading scientist has revealed that Europe could be just five years away from the start of a new Ice Age.  …

[R]enowned physicist Vladimir Paar says most of central Europe will soon be covered in ice.  …

Professor Paar, from Croatia’s Zagreb University, has spent decades analysing previous ice ages in Europe and what caused them.  …

“Previous ice ages lasted about 70,000 years. That’s a fact and the new ice age can’t be avoided.  …

“This could happen in five, 10, 50 or 100 years, or even later. We can’t predict it precisely, but it will come,” he added.

And the professor said that scientists think global warming is simply a natural part of the planet.

“What I mean is that global warming is natural. Some 130,000 years ago the earth’s temperature was the same as now, the level of CO2 was almost the same and the level of the sea was four metres higher.  …  ,” he said.

And he added: “The reality is that mankind needs to start preparing for the ice age. We are at the end of the global warming period. The ice age is to follow.  … [W]e do not know precisely when it could start – but soon.””  “Croat scientist warns ice age could start in five years”  h/t Prison Planet

The inevitable end of the Holocene — enjoy it while you can

12/30/2009

“[E]ven [assumed AGW] warming will not stave off the eventual return of huge glaciers, because ice ages last for millennia and fossil fuels will not.In about 300 years, all available fossil fuels may well have been consumed.Over the following centuries, excess carbon dioxide will naturally dissolve into the oceans or get trapped by the formation of carbonate minerals. Such processes won’t be offset by the industrial emissions we see today, and atmospheric carbon dioxide will slowly decline toward preindustrial levels. In about 2,000 years, when the types of planetary motions that can induce polar cooling start to coincide again, the current warming trend will be a distant memory.” “Global Warming vs. the Next Ice Age” h/t FuturePundit

The inevitable end of the Holocene — enjoy it while you can

12/30/2009

“[E]ven [assumed AGW] warming will not stave off the eventual return of huge glaciers, because ice ages last for millennia and fossil fuels will not.In about 300 years, all available fossil fuels may well have been consumed.Over the following centuries, excess carbon dioxide will naturally dissolve into the oceans or get trapped by the formation of carbonate minerals. Such processes won’t be offset by the industrial emissions we see today, and atmospheric carbon dioxide will slowly decline toward preindustrial levels. In about 2,000 years, when the types of planetary motions that can induce polar cooling start to coincide again, the current warming trend will be a distant memory.” “Global Warming vs. the Next Ice Age” h/t FuturePundit

It's the Sun

08/26/2009

“A team of researchers says it has largely put to rest a long debate on the underlying mechanism that has caused periodic ice ages on Earth for the past 2.5 million years – they are ultimately linked to slight shifts in solar radiation caused by predictable changes in Earth’s rotation and axis.

In a publication to be released Friday in the journal Science, researchers from Oregon State University and other institutions conclude that the known wobbles in Earth’s rotation caused global ice levels to reach their peak about 26,000 years ago, stabilize for 7,000 years and then begin melting 19,000 years ago, eventually bringing to an end the last ice age.

The melting was first caused by more solar radiation, not changes in carbon dioxide levels or ocean temperatures, as some scientists have suggested in recent years.

“Solar radiation was the trigger that started the ice melting, that’s now pretty certain,” said Peter Clark, a professor of geosciences at OSU. “There were also changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and ocean circulation, but those happened later” …

“We now know with much more certainty how ancient ice sheets responded to solar radiation, and that will be very useful in better understanding what the future holds,” Clark said. “It’s good to get this pinned down.” …

Sometime around now, scientists say, the Earth should be changing from a long interglacial period that has lasted the past 10,000 years and shifting back towards conditions that will ultimately lead to another ice age …” “Long debate ended over cause, demise of ice ages – may also help predict future

It’s the Sun

08/26/2009

“A team of researchers says it has largely put to rest a long debate on the underlying mechanism that has caused periodic ice ages on Earth for the past 2.5 million years – they are ultimately linked to slight shifts in solar radiation caused by predictable changes in Earth’s rotation and axis.

In a publication to be released Friday in the journal Science, researchers from Oregon State University and other institutions conclude that the known wobbles in Earth’s rotation caused global ice levels to reach their peak about 26,000 years ago, stabilize for 7,000 years and then begin melting 19,000 years ago, eventually bringing to an end the last ice age.

The melting was first caused by more solar radiation, not changes in carbon dioxide levels or ocean temperatures, as some scientists have suggested in recent years.

“Solar radiation was the trigger that started the ice melting, that’s now pretty certain,” said Peter Clark, a professor of geosciences at OSU. “There were also changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and ocean circulation, but those happened later” …

“We now know with much more certainty how ancient ice sheets responded to solar radiation, and that will be very useful in better understanding what the future holds,” Clark said. “It’s good to get this pinned down.” …

Sometime around now, scientists say, the Earth should be changing from a long interglacial period that has lasted the past 10,000 years and shifting back towards conditions that will ultimately lead to another ice age …” “Long debate ended over cause, demise of ice ages – may also help predict future

More virtual guessing

11/14/2008

“A new analysis of the dramatic cycles of ice ages and warm intervals over the past million years, published in Nature, concludes that the climatic swings are the gyrations of a system poised to settle into a quasi-permanent colder state — with expanded ice sheets at both poles. …

[Thomas J. Crowley of the University of Edinburgh] and William T. Hyde of the University of Toronto used climate models and other techniques to assess the chances that the world is witnessing the final stages of a 50-million-year transition from a planet with a persistent warm climate and scant polar ice to one with greatly expanded ice sheets at both poles.” “Will the next Ice Age be a very long one?

More virtual guessing

11/14/2008

“A new analysis of the dramatic cycles of ice ages and warm intervals over the past million years, published in Nature, concludes that the climatic swings are the gyrations of a system poised to settle into a quasi-permanent colder state — with expanded ice sheets at both poles. …

[Thomas J. Crowley of the University of Edinburgh] and William T. Hyde of the University of Toronto used climate models and other techniques to assess the chances that the world is witnessing the final stages of a 50-million-year transition from a planet with a persistent warm climate and scant polar ice to one with greatly expanded ice sheets at both poles.” “Will the next Ice Age be a very long one?

Another coming ice age paper

05/02/2008

“The geological record shows that the transitions are sudden, long term and extreme. All
of the Milankovitch parameters for a transition are satisfied by the present orbital
position. We have already seen extreme NH winter conditions and T appears to be
declining in the short term. The decline will continue under rapidly declining insolation
and the coincident effect of reduced solar activity which has also been correlated with
temperature in the past.” “An urgent signal for the coming ice age

The long term

05/02/2008


Milankovitch cycles: “Note that today is at the very left side of the chart. … Looking at 400,000 years [ago], the rapid decline in global temperatures was just beginning when the other four charts were in periods of change very much the same as what is being seen today. If the past is any indication of the future, rapid and significant global cooling is virtually a certainty in the near future if it has not already begun.” “Prepare for dramatically cooler climate

Another coming ice age paper

05/02/2008

“The geological record shows that the transitions are sudden, long term and extreme. All
of the Milankovitch parameters for a transition are satisfied by the present orbital
position. We have already seen extreme NH winter conditions and T appears to be
declining in the short term. The decline will continue under rapidly declining insolation
and the coincident effect of reduced solar activity which has also been correlated with
temperature in the past.” “An urgent signal for the coming ice age