Archive for the ‘ozone’ Category

New paper by Qing-Bin Lu

12/22/2009

A new paper by Qing-Bin Lu of the University of Waterloo is making quite a splash (see e.g. WUWT). The paper purports to show that solar-magnetic-field-modulated cosmic rays are responsible not only for the Antarctic “ozone hole” (see prior paper by Lu here) but also for recent climate change through a mechanism involving cosmic rays and chlorofluorcarbons (CFCs) described in the abstract as follows:

“The cosmic-ray driven electron-induced reaction of halogenated molecules adsorbed on ice surfaces has been proposed as a new mechanism for the formation of the polar ozone hole. Here, experimental findings of dissociative electron transfer reactions of halogenated molecules on ice surfaces in electron-stimulated desorption, electron trapping and femtosecond time-resolved laser spectroscopic measurements are reviewed. It is followed by a review of the evidence from recent satellite observations of this new mechanism for the Antarctic ozone hole, and all other possible physical mechanisms are discussed. Moreover, new observations of the 11 year cyclic variations of both polar ozone loss and stratospheric cooling and the seasonal variations of CFCs and CH4 in the polar stratosphere are presented, and quantitative predictions of the Antarctic ozone hole in the future are given. Finally, new observation of the effects of CFCs and cosmic-ray driven ozone depletion on global climate change is also presented and discussed.”

I don’t think the paper adequately explains recent climate change however, primarily because I don’t think CFCs are primarily responsible for the Antarctic “ozone hole”. I think the observed correlation of cosmic rays and the Antarctic “ozone hole” has a much simpler explanation. For a good discussion of the latter issues see the article at Junk Science.

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New paper by Qing-Bin Lu

12/22/2009

A new paper by Qing-Bin Lu of the University of Waterloo is making quite a splash (see e.g. WUWT). The paper purports to show that solar-magnetic-field-modulated cosmic rays are responsible not only for the Antarctic “ozone hole” (see prior paper by Lu here) but also for recent climate change through a mechanism involving cosmic rays and chlorofluorcarbons (CFCs) described in the abstract as follows:

“The cosmic-ray driven electron-induced reaction of halogenated molecules adsorbed on ice surfaces has been proposed as a new mechanism for the formation of the polar ozone hole. Here, experimental findings of dissociative electron transfer reactions of halogenated molecules on ice surfaces in electron-stimulated desorption, electron trapping and femtosecond time-resolved laser spectroscopic measurements are reviewed. It is followed by a review of the evidence from recent satellite observations of this new mechanism for the Antarctic ozone hole, and all other possible physical mechanisms are discussed. Moreover, new observations of the 11 year cyclic variations of both polar ozone loss and stratospheric cooling and the seasonal variations of CFCs and CH4 in the polar stratosphere are presented, and quantitative predictions of the Antarctic ozone hole in the future are given. Finally, new observation of the effects of CFCs and cosmic-ray driven ozone depletion on global climate change is also presented and discussed.”

I don’t think the paper adequately explains recent climate change however, primarily because I don’t think CFCs are primarily responsible for the Antarctic “ozone hole”. I think the observed correlation of cosmic rays and the Antarctic “ozone hole” has a much simpler explanation. For a good discussion of the latter issues see the article at Junk Science.

Latest from the clergy: humans cause Antarctic cooling

12/02/2009

“A HUGE hole in the ozone layer has protected Antarctica from the impacts of global warming, according to scientists. The temperature across Antarctica has not risen over the past 30 years [it has cooled] and there has been a 10 per cent increase in the amount of sea ice appearing during winter.

Climate change sceptics regularly cite the lack of warming in Antarctica as evidence global warming is not happening.

However, researchers have now explained the phenomenon – they believe that a hole in the ozone layer above the continent has altered weather patterns and temperatures.

The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research [SCARE] carried out the first comprehensive review of the state of Antarctica’s climate. Their report, Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment, is published today.

Professor John Turner of the British Antarctic Survey, lead editor of the report, said: “For me the most astonishing evidence is the way that one man-made environmental impact – the ozone hole – has shielded most of Antarctica from another – global warming.”” “Antarctica protected from global warming by hole in ozone layer

Only one problem — the anthropogenic antarctic ozone hole theory is toast and solar-magnetic-field-modulated cosmic rays may be responsible (here and here).

Latest from the clergy: humans cause Antarctic cooling

12/02/2009

“A HUGE hole in the ozone layer has protected Antarctica from the impacts of global warming, according to scientists. The temperature across Antarctica has not risen over the past 30 years [it has cooled] and there has been a 10 per cent increase in the amount of sea ice appearing during winter.

Climate change sceptics regularly cite the lack of warming in Antarctica as evidence global warming is not happening.

However, researchers have now explained the phenomenon – they believe that a hole in the ozone layer above the continent has altered weather patterns and temperatures.

The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research [SCARE] carried out the first comprehensive review of the state of Antarctica’s climate. Their report, Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment, is published today.

Professor John Turner of the British Antarctic Survey, lead editor of the report, said: “For me the most astonishing evidence is the way that one man-made environmental impact – the ozone hole – has shielded most of Antarctica from another – global warming.”” “Antarctica protected from global warming by hole in ozone layer

Only one problem — the anthropogenic antarctic ozone hole theory is toast and solar-magnetic-field-modulated cosmic rays may be responsible (here and here).

Sun-modulated cosmic rays cause ozone hole

09/25/2008

“A University of Waterloo scientist says that cosmic rays are a key cause for expanding the hole in the ozone layer over the South Pole — and predicts the largest ozone hole will occur in one or two weeks.

Qing-Bin Lu, a professor of physics and astronomy who studies ozone depletion, says that it was generally accepted for more than two decades that the Earth’s ozone layer is depleted by chlorine atoms produced by sunlight-induced destruction of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the atmosphere. But more and more evidence now points to a new theory that the cosmic rays (energy particles that originate in space) play a major role. …

Lu says that data from several sources, including NASA satellites, show a strong correlation between cosmic ray intensity and ozone depletion. Lab measurements demonstrate a mechanism by which cosmic rays cause drastic reactions of ozone-depleting chlorine inside polar clouds.

Satellite data in the period of 1980-2007, covering two full 11-year solar cycles, demonstrate the significant correlation between cosmic rays and ozone depletion.

“This finding, combined with laboratory measurements, provides strong evidence of the role of cosmic-ray driven reactions in causing the ozone hole and resolves the mystery why a large discrepancy between the sunlight-related photochemical model and the observed ozone depletion exists,” Lu says. …

In sharp contrast, Lu says his study predicts the severest ozone loss — resulting in the largest ozone hole — will occur over the South Pole this month. The study also predicts another large hole will probably occur around 2019.” “New theory predicts the largest ozone hole over Antarctica will occur this month

Sun-modulated cosmic rays cause ozone hole

09/25/2008

“A University of Waterloo scientist says that cosmic rays are a key cause for expanding the hole in the ozone layer over the South Pole — and predicts the largest ozone hole will occur in one or two weeks.

Qing-Bin Lu, a professor of physics and astronomy who studies ozone depletion, says that it was generally accepted for more than two decades that the Earth’s ozone layer is depleted by chlorine atoms produced by sunlight-induced destruction of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) in the atmosphere. But more and more evidence now points to a new theory that the cosmic rays (energy particles that originate in space) play a major role. …

Lu says that data from several sources, including NASA satellites, show a strong correlation between cosmic ray intensity and ozone depletion. Lab measurements demonstrate a mechanism by which cosmic rays cause drastic reactions of ozone-depleting chlorine inside polar clouds.

Satellite data in the period of 1980-2007, covering two full 11-year solar cycles, demonstrate the significant correlation between cosmic rays and ozone depletion.

“This finding, combined with laboratory measurements, provides strong evidence of the role of cosmic-ray driven reactions in causing the ozone hole and resolves the mystery why a large discrepancy between the sunlight-related photochemical model and the observed ozone depletion exists,” Lu says. …

In sharp contrast, Lu says his study predicts the severest ozone loss — resulting in the largest ozone hole — will occur over the South Pole this month. The study also predicts another large hole will probably occur around 2019.” “New theory predicts the largest ozone hole over Antarctica will occur this month