Archive for the ‘sea level’ Category

Scandal in Oz — alarmism rejected

03/29/2012
“Like many working couples, Anne and Russell Secombe decided to find a place by the sea where they would eventually retire to live out the rest of their lives pursuing simple pleasures. In the 1970s, the couple, now in their 80s, found it, a modest single-level brick house at 23 Illaroo Rd, Lake Cathie, a town on the NSW mid-north coast.  …

It’s simple bliss: Anne, a retired clerk, spends time keeping up her neat garden; Russell, a retired mechanic, angles on the beach for blackfish, flathead and bream. But yesterday the Secombes’ sense of hard-earned stability collapsed when they discovered they could be among the first victims in Australia to be dispossessed of their home. Not because of any existing environmental threat, but because the local council believes climate change could pose one by the end of the century.

In a move that struck incredulity, alarm and fear among locals, Port Macquarie Hastings Council put a study on the council website recommending that council enforce a “planned retreat” for the owners of the 17 houses on Illaroo Road. The area is one of 15 “hot spots” identified by the NSW government as being vulnerable to the effects of sea level rises due to climate change, as outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.  …

Illaroo Road is about 7m above mean sea level, so there’s no danger of flooding.  …

Council’s action has reduced property values on Illaroo Road by between a third and a half, according to local observers.”

Fighting on the beaches as council orders retreat from climate change ‘threat’

“Home owners in the NSW town of Lake Cathie appear likely to escape an eviction order recommended by a consultant’s report that calls for a “planned retreat” from a predicted rise in sea levels, as the O’Farrell government is expected to discard the alarmist climate change predictions of its Labor predecessor.  …

The developments follow revelations in The Weekend Australianon Saturday that the consultants employed by the council, SMEC, had recommended the council buy out 17 homes on Illaroo Road based on predictions by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – and adopted by the previous Labor government – of a sea-level rise of 40cm by 2050 and 90cm by the turn of the century.  …

Mr Porter’s decision that he will work to save the Lake Cathie houses comes as the NSW Coalition government appears likely to determine that the coastal management strategy of the previous Labor government is unrealistic.  …

SMEC’s report made clear that even given the direst climate change and sea-level rise predictions, with Illaroo Road being 7m above mean sea level, “overtopping and coastal inundation are not an issue”.”

Seafront residents in nothern NSW saved from eviction

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Scandal in Oz, Part 2

12/08/2011

“It is not climate change that is threatening the coastal towns of Australia.

It’s exaggerated predictions of rising sea levels that are slashing property values, driving away small businesses and making residents tear out their hair.  …

Gosford Council is “prepared to write off 9000 families…by introducing draconian development controls that ultimately are designed to turn all of Davistown & half of Woy Woy and Empire Bay into derelict suburbs,” says [Pat] Aiken [secretary of Coastal Residents Incorporated].

Coastal councils stacked with risk-averse dupes and green agitators have been imposing ad hoc restrictions on development near the water in anticipation of catastrophic sea inundation by the end of this century, as promised by the likes of Al Gore and Tim Flannery.  …

The council was promoting a policy called a “reactive management strategy” which [homeowner Stephen] Hunt describes as “a hideous policy that gives the council and state government the power to turn off the utilities within the street and force landowners to walk away from their properties without any financial compensation”.  …

Similarly, in Port Albert, Victoria, residents claimed property prices fell 38 percent after the local council enacted absurd planning laws requiring new houses to be built 1.5m above the ground to avoid rising sea levels, while requiring roof heights to remain the same. This prompted angry residents to complain their houses would be suitable only for pygmies.  [see Higher floors, lower roofs: the town being shrunk by climate change angst]  …

[S]imilar nonsense continues up and down the east coast, with each township having to mount a defence against the catastrophists. With wildly varying predictions of sea level rises as high as 75m coming from NASA, the IPCC and experts such as Flannery, councils were opting for the extreme precautionary principle.”  “We must see level heads or our coast is doomed

Scandal in Oz

12/08/2011

“Amid exaggerated predictions that sea levels would rise by 75m, [coastal engineer Doug] Lord made the career-ending mistake of actually measuring the sea level and trying to publish the results.

This caused him to be “let go” from his government job and have peer-reviewed scientific papers pulled at the last minute from a conference in Shanghai last year, from a conference in Perth in September and from a journal where they were to be published this year.

Not only that, but he was banned by his bosses at the NSW environment department from representing Engineers Australia, whose national coastal committee he chaired, at a 2009 parliamentary inquiry into managing climate change.  …

With colleague Phil Watson, Lord examined 110-year tide gauge records from Fort Denison in Sydney Harbour, and other sites. They found the sea level was rising at less than 1mm a year …

In 2009 Watson published the results, putting the lie to [then Minister for Climate Change and Water] Penny Wong’s claims sea level rises would wipe out beaches and hundreds of metres of coastline. “The analysis reveals a consistent trend of weak deceleration at each of these gauge sites throughout Australasia over the period from 1940 to 2000,” he wrote in the Journal of Coastal Research.  …

This was an inconvenient truth to governments who were busy beefing up climate risk assessments at the time. The federal government predicted a sea level rise of 1.1m by 2100. NSW came up with 0.9m.

But Lord’s data showed they had exaggerated the rise by 1000 per cent. His measurement of 1mm a year gives you a sea level rise of no more than 90mm [~ 3.5 inches], (0.09m) by 2100.  …

Last year, Lord and Watson were banned from presenting three papers they had prepared for the International Conference on Coastal Engineering in Shanghai.

“(At the time) the government was finalising its sea level rise policy,” he said. “I was told [the department] wouldn’t support the three papers because they weren’t consistent with the policy that was being developed.”

By this stage, Lord had lost his job, after a departmental “restructure”.

Nevertheless, he and Watson wrote another paper, which was peer-reviewed and approved for publication in the journal of Australian Civil Engineering Transactions. In September, just before publication, the department refused Watson, still an employee, permission to publish.

Then a conference paper the two men were to present at a Coasts and Ports conference in Perth was pulled.”  “Tide rises against climate lies

Science versus alarmism and advocacy

05/22/2010

Abstract: A continuous data set of Greenland Ice Sheet altimeter height from European Remote Sensing satellites (ERS-1 and ERS-2), 1992 to 2003, has been analyzed. An increase of 6.4 T 0.2 centimeters per year (cm/year) is found in the vast interior areas above 1500 meters, in contrast to previous reports of highelevation balance. Below 1500 meters, the elevation-change rate is –2.0 T 0.9 cm/year, in qualitative agreement with reported thinning in the ice-sheet margins.  Averaged over the study area, the increase is 5.4 T 0.2 cm/year, or È60 cm over 11 years, or È54 cm when corrected for isostatic uplift. Winter elevation changes are shown to be linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation.”  “Recent Ice-Sheet Growth in the Interior of Greenland”  h/t The Hockey Schtick

“[S]cientists at the University of Miami say Greenland’s ice is melting so quickly that the land underneath is rising at an accelerated pace.  …

“It’s been known for several years that climate change is contributing to the melting of Greenland’s ice sheet,” Dixon says. “What’s surprising, and a bit worrisome, is that the ice is melting so fast that we can actually see the land uplift in response,” he says. “Even more surprising, the rise seems to be accelerating, implying that melting is accelerating.”

Dixon and his collaborators share their findings in a new study titled “Accelerating uplift in the North Atlantic region as an indicator of ice loss.”  The paper is now available as an advanced online publication, by Nature Geoscience.  …

Melting of Greenland’s ice contributes to global sea level rise. If the acceleration of uplift and the implied acceleration of melting continue, Greenland could soon become the largest contributor to global sea level rise, explains Yan Jiang, Ph.D. candidate at the University of Miami RSMAS and co-author of the study.

“Greenland’s ice melt is very important because it has a big impact on global sea level rise,” Jiang says. “We hope that our work reaches the general public and that this information is considered by policy makers.””  “Greenland Rapidly Rising as Ice Melt Continues

AP journo falls for enviro nonsense (what else is new?)

03/24/2010

New Moore Island and Lohachara Island are sediment islands in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta.  New Moore “emerged in the Bay of Bengal in the aftermath of the Bhola cyclone in 1970” (from Wikipedia).  Such islands are created and destroyed by changing currents and sediment load in the river delta.  The delta as a whole is subsiding.  Sea level rise has nothing to do with it.  Now read the alarmist nonsense below from AP claiming the island is a “rock island” (NOT!) that was “submerged” by an “alarming increase” in sea level (NOT!) caused by “global warming”.  Even more embarrassing than the ignorant journo is the quoted professor, who one hopes knows better (if not then it’s even worse):

“For nearly 30 years, India and Bangladesh have argued over control of a tiny rock island in the Bay of Bengal. Now rising sea levels have resolved the dispute for them: the island’s gone.

New Moore Island in the Sunderbans has been completely submerged, said oceanographer Sugata Hazra, a professor at Jadavpur University in Calcutta. Its disappearance has been confirmed by satellite imagery and sea patrols, he said.

“What these two countries could not achieve from years of talking, has been resolved by global warming,” said Hazra.

Scientists at the School of Oceanographic Studies at the university have noted an alarming increase in the rate at which sea levels have risen over the past decade in the Bay of Bengal.  …

Another nearby island, Lohachara, was submerged in 1996, forcing its inhabitants to move to the mainland, while almost half the land of Ghoramara island was underwater, he said. At least 10 other islands in the area were at risk as well, Hazra said.

“We will have ever larger numbers of people displaced from the Sunderbans as more island areas come under water,” he said.

Bangladesh, a low-lying delta nation of 150 million people, is one of the countries worst-affected by global warming. Officials estimate 18 percent of Bangladesh’s coastal area will be underwater and 20 million people will be displaced if sea levels rise 1 meter (3.3 feet) by 2050 as projected by some climate models.”  “Disputed isle in Bay of Bengal disappears into sea

Sea level rising? Not lately

02/17/2010

Image from:  “Global sea level decrease 2004-2009

Physicist: mankind needs to start preparing for the ice age

02/11/2010

“A leading scientist has revealed that Europe could be just five years away from the start of a new Ice Age.  …

[R]enowned physicist Vladimir Paar says most of central Europe will soon be covered in ice.  …

Professor Paar, from Croatia’s Zagreb University, has spent decades analysing previous ice ages in Europe and what caused them.  …

“Previous ice ages lasted about 70,000 years. That’s a fact and the new ice age can’t be avoided.  …

“This could happen in five, 10, 50 or 100 years, or even later. We can’t predict it precisely, but it will come,” he added.

And the professor said that scientists think global warming is simply a natural part of the planet.

“What I mean is that global warming is natural. Some 130,000 years ago the earth’s temperature was the same as now, the level of CO2 was almost the same and the level of the sea was four metres higher.  …  ,” he said.

And he added: “The reality is that mankind needs to start preparing for the ice age. We are at the end of the global warming period. The ice age is to follow.  … [W]e do not know precisely when it could start – but soon.””  “Croat scientist warns ice age could start in five years”  h/t Prison Planet

Last interglacial warmer, sea level higher

12/30/2009

Three to 5 degrees warmer and nothing happened to the planet, no “runaway” warming, no tipping point, nada, and CO2 had nothing to do with it:

“Around 125,000 years ago, global warming drove sea levels to surge by more than 20 feet.

Sea levels were likely eight meters higher around 125,000 years ago when polar temperatures were 3-5 degrees Celsius (5.4-9 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer, says a new study published Wednesday …

“We find a 95 percent probability that global sea level peaked at least 6.6 meters (nearly 22 feet) higher than today during the last interglacial,” the study said.

“It is likely to have exceeded 8.0 meters (around 26 feet) but is unlikely to have exceeded 9.4 meters (nearly 31 feet),” it said. …

The researchers also calculated that during the last interglacial period the average sea level rose six to nine millimeters a year compared to around two millimeters a year during the 20th century.” “Sea Levels Spiked With Ancient Warming Event

Last interglacial warmer, sea level higher

12/30/2009

Three to 5 degrees warmer and nothing happened to the planet, no “runaway” warming, no tipping point, nada, and CO2 had nothing to do with it:

“Around 125,000 years ago, global warming drove sea levels to surge by more than 20 feet.

Sea levels were likely eight meters higher around 125,000 years ago when polar temperatures were 3-5 degrees Celsius (5.4-9 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer, says a new study published Wednesday …

“We find a 95 percent probability that global sea level peaked at least 6.6 meters (nearly 22 feet) higher than today during the last interglacial,” the study said.

“It is likely to have exceeded 8.0 meters (around 26 feet) but is unlikely to have exceeded 9.4 meters (nearly 31 feet),” it said. …

The researchers also calculated that during the last interglacial period the average sea level rose six to nine millimeters a year compared to around two millimeters a year during the 20th century.” “Sea Levels Spiked With Ancient Warming Event

Chill out, John, get some perspective

12/10/2009

“John P. Holdren, director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and President Barack Obama’s top science adviser, told Congress last week that the Earth could be approaching a series of “tipping points” that could drastically alter the climate and Earth’s natural systems and cause the sea level to rise dramatically.” “Obama’s Top Science Adviser to Congress: Earth Could Be Reaching Global Warming ‘Tipping Point’ That Would Be Followed by a Dramatic Rise in Sea Level