Archive for the ‘Sun’ Category

Will Alexander on the suppression of science by the AGW clergy


“Together with my colleagues, research assistants and students we are now able to demonstrate with a high degree of statistical assurance (95% in many cases) that the annual river flows, rainfall and other hydro-meteorological data exhibit predictable, concurrent, above and below average multi-year sequences. More importantly, we can demonstrate that these multi-year properties are directly related to variations in the receipt and poleward redistribution of solar energy via the global oceanic and atmospheric processes. We were unable to detect any trends or other anomalies in the data that could be ascribed to human activities.

Now my question. Given this readily available information is it not obvious that the fundamental error in climate change science, including the ability to predict regional climatic variations years ahead, is the clear rejection by climate change scientists of the obvious solar energy related processes that drive global climate?  …

There is another issue of major international concern. In the 1970s there was a wealth of international research in this field. I attended discussions and symposia in the UK, Canada, USA, Israel and Taiwan. I do not recall a single major conflict or dispute. Today the situation is totally different. There are no international conferences or symposia where alternative theories can be presented and discussed. Instead, opposing views are vigorously suppressed. This is not science.”  “Will Alexander: Predicting Climatic Extremes

Yet more evidence for the Svensmark effect


Abstract:  We demonstrate evidence that past composite based studies centred around the onset of Forbush decrease (FD) events may have improperly isolated the maximal galactic cosmic ray (GCR) decrease associated with the FD events. After an adjustment of the composite to account for such shortcomings we find indications of anomalous cloud cover decreases (of around 3%) located in the upper levels of the troposphere at high southern latitudes. These cloud changes are detectable after latitudinal averaging, suggesting the possibility of a second order relationship between the rate of GCR flux and cloud cover in this region. The maximal cloud change is observed in advance of the maximal GCR decrease; this implies that if the observed cloud changes bear a causal relationship to the rate of GCR flux, then cloud properties may be sensitive to changes in GCR conditions rather than the maximal deviations themselves.”  “Forbush decreases and Antarctic cloud anomalies in the upper troposphere

It's the Sun: solar UV has increased 50% since Little Ice Age


Figure 8. Reconstructed solar irradiance in Ly-α: daily (thin solid line) and smoothed over 11 years (thick line).

Abstract: Solar irradiance is the main external driver of the Earth’s climate. Whereas the total solar irradiance is the main source of energy input into the climate system, solar UV irradiance exerts control over chemical and physical processes in the Earth’s upper atmosphere. The time series of accurate irradiance measurements are, however, relatively short and limit the assessment of the solar contribution to the climate change. Here we reconstruct solar total and spectral irradiance in the range 115–160,000 nm since 1610. The evolution of the solar photospheric magnetic flux, which is a central input to the model, is appraised from the historical record of the sunspot number using a simple but consistent physical model. The model predicts an increase of 1.25 W/m2, or about 0.09%, in the 11-year averaged solar total irradiance since the Maunder minimum. Also, irradiance in individual spectral intervals has generally increased during the past four centuries, the magnitude of the trend being higher toward shorter wavelengths. In particular, the 11-year averaged Ly-α irradiance has increased by almost 50%. An exception is the spectral interval between about 1500 and 2500 nm, where irradiance has slightly decreased (by about 0.02%).”  “Reconstruction of solar spectral irradiance since the Maunder minimum”  H/t The Hockey Schtick

New paper by Prof. Akasofu (Int'l Arctic Research Center, U. Alaska Fairbanks)


A number of published papers and openly available data on sea level changes, glacier retreat, freezing/break-up dates of rivers, sea ice retreat, tree-ring observations, ice cores and changes of the cosmic-ray intensity, from the year 1000 to the present, are studied to examine how the Earth has recovered from the Little Ice Age (LIA). We learn that the recovery from the LIA has proceeded continuously, roughly in a linear manner, from 1800-1850 to the present. The rate of the recovery in terms of temperature is about 0.5°C/100 years and thus it has important implications for understanding the present global warming. It is suggested, on the basis of a much longer period data, that the Earth is still in the process of recovery from the LIA; there is no sign to indicate the end of the recovery before 1900. Cosmic-ray intensity data show that solar activity was related to both the LIA and its recovery. The multi-decadal oscillation of a period of 50 to 60 years was superposed on the linear change; it peaked in 1940 and 2000, causing the halting of warming temporarily after 2000. These changes are natural changes, and in order to determine the contribution of the manmade greenhouse effect, there is an urgent need to identify them correctly and accurately and re-move them from the present global warming/cooling trend.  …

In this paper we learned:
1) The Earth experienced the Little Ice Age (LIA) between 1200-1400 and 1800-1850. The temperature during the LIA is expected to be 1°C lower than the present temperature. The solar irradiance was relatively low during the LIA.
2) The gradual recovery from 1800-1850 was approximately linear, the recovery (warming) rate was about 0.5°C/100 years. The same linear change continued from 1800-1850 to 2000. In this period, the solar irradiance began to recover from its low value during the LIA.
3) The recovery from the LIA is still continuing today.
4) The multi-decadal oscillation is superposed on the linear change. The multi-decadal oscillation peaked in about 1940 and also in 2000, causing the temporal halting of the recovery from the LIA.
5) The negative trend after the peak in 1940 and 2000 overwhelmed the linear trend of the recovery, causing the cooling or halting of warming.
6) The view presented in this paper predicts the temperature increase in 2100 to be 0.5°C ± 0.2°C, rather than 4° C ± 2.0°C predicted by the IPCC.”  “On the recovery from the Little Ice Age”  H/t Tom Nelson

Japan proxy study validates solar magnetic field climate link during Maunder Minimum


Synchronized Northern Hemisphere climate change and solar magnetic cycles during the Maunder Minimum

Yasuhiko T. Yamaguchi, Yusuke Yokoyama, Hiroko Miyahara, Kenjiro Sho, and Takeshi Nakatsuka


The Maunder Minimum (A.D. 1645–1715) is a useful period to investigate possible sun–climate linkages as sunspots became exceedingly rare and the characteristics of solar cycles were different from those of today. Here, we report annual variations in the oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) of tree-ring cellulose in central Japan during the Maunder Minimum. We were able to explore possible sun–climate connections through high-temporal resolution solar activity (radiocarbon contents; Δ14C) and climate (δ18O) isotope records derived from annual tree rings. The tree-ring δ18O record in Japan shows distinct negative δ18O spikes (wetter rainy seasons) coinciding with rapid cooling in Greenland and with decreases in Northern Hemisphere mean temperature at around minima of decadal solar cycles. We have determined that the climate signals in all three records strongly correlate with changes in the polarity of solar dipole magnetic field, suggesting a causal link to galactic cosmic rays (GCRs). These findings are further supported by a comparison between the interannual patterns of tree-ring δ18O record and the GCR flux reconstructed by an ice-core 10Be record. Therefore, the variation of GCR flux associated with the multidecadal cycles of solar magnetic field seem to be causally related to the significant and widespread climate changes at least during the Maunder Minimum.”  h/t Steven Goddard

Stephen Wilde's new climate model


“In my articles to date I have been unwilling to claim anything as grand as the creation of a new model of climate because until now I was unable to propose any solar mechanism that could result directly in global albedo changes without some other forcing agent or that could account for a direct solar cause of discontinuities in the temperature profile along the horizontal line of the oceanic thermohaline circulation.  I have now realised that the global albedo changes necessary and the changes in solar energy input to the oceans can be explained by the latitudinal shifts (beyond normal seasonal variation) of all the air circulation systems and in particular the net latitudinal positions of the three main cloud bands namely the two generated by the mid latitude jet streams plus the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).

The secret lies in the declining angle of incidence of solar energy input from equator to poles.

It is apparent that the same size and density of cloud mass moved, say, 1000 miles nearer to the equator will have the following effects:

i) It will receive more intense irradiation from the sun and so will reflect more energy to space.

ii) It will reduce the amount of energy reaching the surface compared to what it would have let in if situated more poleward.

iii) In the northern hemisphere due to the current land/sea distribution the more equatorward the cloud moves the more ocean surface it will cover thus reducing total solar input to the oceans and reducing the rate of accretion to ocean energy content.

iv) It will produce cooling rains over a larger area of ocean surface.

As a rule the ITCZ is usually situated north of the equator because most ocean is in the southern hemisphere and it is ocean temperatures that dictate it’s position by governing the rate of energy transfer from oceans to air. Thus if the two mid latitude jets move equatorward at the same time as the ITCZ moves closer to the equator the combined effect on global albedo and the amount of solar energy able to penetrate the oceans will be substantial and would dwarf the other proposed effects on albedo from changes in cosmic ray intensity generating changes in cloud totals as per Svensmark and from suggested changes caused in upper cloud quantities by changes in atmospheric chemistry involving ozone which various other climate sceptics propose.

Thus the following NCM will incorporate my above described positional cause of changes in albedo and rates of energy input to the oceans rather than any of the other proposals. That then leads to a rather neat solution to the other theories’ problems with the timing of the various cycles as becomes clear below.”

Read more here:  “A new and effective climate model

Svensmark explains the faint young Sun paradox


Abstract: Using kappa Ceti as a proxy for the young Sun we show that not only was the young Sun much more effective in protecting the Earth environment from galactic cosmic rays than the present day Sun; it also had flare and corona mass ejection rates up to three orders of magnitude larger than the present day Sun. The reduction in the galactic cosmic ray influx caused by the young Sun’s enhanced shielding capability has been suggested as a solution to what is known as the faint young Sun paradox, i.e. the fact that the luminosity of the young Sun was only around 75% of its present value when life started to evolve on our planet around four billion years ago [and yet, paradoxically, the Earth didn’t freeze over]. This suggestion relies on the hypothesis that the changing solar activity results in a changing influx of galactic cosmic rays to the Earth, which results in a changing low-altitude cloud coverage and thus a changing climate. Here we show how the larger corona mass ejection rates of the young Sun would have had an effect on the climate with a magnitude similar to the enhanced shielding capability of the young Sun.”  “How did the Sun affect the climate when life evolved on the Earth?”  h/t Lubos Motl

Svensmark explains the antarctic climate anomoly


“Low-level clouds cover more than a quarter of the Earth and exert a strong cooling effect at the surface.  … Cloud tops have a high albedo and exert their cooling effect by scattering back into the cosmos much of the sunlight that could otherwise warm the surface.

But the snows on the Antarctic ice sheets are dazzlingly white, with a higher albedo than the cloud tops. There, extra cloud cover warms the surface, and less cloudiness cools it.  Satellite measurements show the warming effect of clouds on Antarctica, and meteorologists at far southern latitudes confirm it by observation.  …

The cosmic-ray and cloud-forcing hypothesis therefore predicts that temperature changes in Antarctica should be opposite in sign to changes in temperature in the rest of the world. This is exactly what is observed, in a well-known phenomenon that some geophysicists have called the polar see-saw, but for which “the Antarctic climate anomaly” seems a better name (Svensmark 2007).

To account for evidence spanning many thousands of years from drilling sites in Antarctica and Greenland, which show many episodes of climate change going in opposite directions, ad hoc hypotheses on offer involve major reorganization of ocean currents. While they might be possible explanations for low-resolution climate records, with error-bars of centuries, they cannot begin to explain the rapid operation of the Antarctic climate anomaly from decade to decade as seen in the 20th century (figure 6).

Cloud forcing is by far the most economical explanation of the anomaly on all timescales.  Indeed, absence of the anomaly would have been a decisive argument against cloud forcing – which introduces a much-needed element of refutability into climate science.”  “Cosmoclimatology:  a new theory emerges”  h/t WUWT

Scafetta on the 60-year temperature cycle


Nicola Scafetta has a new paper out, “Climate change and its causes — a discussion about some key issues” (13MB pdf).  It is well worth a read.  One “key issue” is “a large 60 year cycle in the temperature record” (p. 19).  Says Scafetta:

“It has been observed that several multi-secular climatic and oceanic records present large cycles with periods of about 50-70 years with an average of 60 years [18].17 Figure 10 [below] shows the global temperature record detrended of its quadratic upward trend [19] depicted in Figure 1. This sequence has been filtered of its fast fluctuations (by applying a six year moving average smooth algorithm) and it has been plotted against itself with a time-lag of about 60 years. The figure clearly suggests the existence of an almost perfect cyclical correspondence between the periods 1880-1940 and 1940-2000. The peak in 1880 repeats in 1940 and again in 2000. The smaller peak in 1900 repeats in 1960. This 60-odd year oscillation cannot be associated with any known anthropogenic phenomenon [19]. (See also Appendixes Q and R).”

What causes this 60-year cycle?  Scafetta goes on (p. 22):

“If the temperature is characterized by natural periodic cycles the only reasonable explanation is that the climate system is modulated by astronomical oscillations.20 Natural cycles known with certainty are the 11 (Schwabe) and 22 (Hale) year solar cycles, the cycles of the planets and luni-solar nodal cycles [19,24]. Jupiter has an orbital period of 11.87 years while Saturn has an orbital period of 29.4 years. These periods predict three other major cycles which are associated with Jupiter and Saturn: about 10 years, the opposition of [the] two planets; about 20 years, their synodic cycle; and about 60 years, the repetition of the combined orbits of the two planets. The major lunar cycles are about 18.6 and 8.85 years.

Figure 12 shows a spectral analysis of the global surface temperature and of a record that depends on the orbits of planets (the speed of the sun relative to the center of mass of the solar system [19]). The two records have almost the same cycles. The temperature record contains the cycles of the planets combined with the two solar cycles of 11 and 22 years and a lunar cycle at about 9.1 years.21 (See also Appendixes Q-V).  …

The physical mechanisms involved in the process are likely numerous. The gravitational forces of the planets can partially modulate the solar activity. For example, it was noted that the alignment of Venus, Earth and Jupiter presents cycles of approximately 11 years that are in phase with the 11-year solar cycles [21] and multi secular reconstructions of solar activity reveal 60-year cycles associated with the combined orbit of Jupiter and Saturn and other longer cycles [22]. Solar changes could modulate climate change through various physical and chemical processes as explained in Section 6, which are currently not included in the models, as explained in Section 6.

There is also the possibility that the Earth’s orbital parameters are directly modulated by the gravitational forces of Jupiter, Saturn and the Moon, and the Sun’s magnetic force in such a way that the length of day is modulated and/or other planetary parameters are altered.  For example, the rotation of the Earth on its axis shows 60-year cycles that anticipate those of the temperature by a few years [18, 23]. Variations in the Earth’s rotation and tides caused by the lunar cycles can drive ocean oscillations, which in turn may alter the climate [19]. For example, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) present clear 60-year cycles and other faster cycles, see Figures 14 and 15. None of these mechanisms are included in the models adopted by the IPCC.”

Prior posts on the Jovian planets’ tidal influence on the Sun here.  Anthony Watts covers the paper here.

New paper: solar magnetic variation initiates interglacials


“Using the fact that the galactic cosmic ray flux incident on the heliosphere boundary is known to have remained close to constant over the last 200 kyr, and that there exist independent records of geomagnetic variations over this period, Sharma25 was able to use a functional relation reflecting the existing data to give a good estimate of solar activity over this 200 kyr period.  …

Sharma was able to calculate the normalized solar modulation factor over the last 200 kyr. The result is shown in Fig. 8.

The 100 kyr periodicity is readily apparent in Fig. 8. It is also seen that the d18O record and solar modulation are coherent and in phase. Sharma concludes from this that “. . . variations in solar surface magnetic activity cause changes in the Earth’s climate on a 100-ka timescale”.  …


It has been shown above that low altitude cloud cover closely follows cosmic ray flux; that the galactic cosmic ray flux has the periodicities of the glacial/interglacial cycles; that a decrease in galactic cosmic ray flux was coincident with Termination II [the warming that initiated the Eemian, the last interglacial] ; and that the most likely initiator for Termination II was a consequent decrease in Earth’s albedo.

The temperature of past interglacials was higher than today most likely as a consequence of a lower global albedo due to a decrease in galactic cosmic ray flux reaching the Earth’s atmosphere. In addition, the galactic cosmic ray intensity exhibits a 100 kyr periodicity over the last 200 kyr that is in phase with the glacial terminations of this period. Carbon dioxide appears to play a very limited role in setting interglacial temperature.”  “INTERGLACIALS, MILANKOVITCH CYCLES, AND CARBON DIOXIDE”  h/t Niche Modeling