Archive for the ‘temperature record’ Category

Global warming in California


“Spring passed California by, and summer remains in hiding.  …

A giant Sierra snowpack, still frozen fast, has put innumerable summer adventures on hold.  …

And it’s not over yet: Sacramento can expect as much as another 1.4 inches of rain this weekend and temperatures 20 degrees below normal, with more mountain snow.  …

One theory gaining traction is that climate change, in fact, may be to blame.

The theory was developed in several published papers by Judah Cohen, an atmospheric scientist in Massachusetts.  …

Colder and snowier winters caused by global warming? It may be one of the counterintuitive consequences of climate change, he said.

“We don’t understand everything, and we don’t understand how the different feedbacks affect different parts of the climate system,” said Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, a private firm in Lexington, Mass. “It’s very complicated. So we should expect the unexpected.”  …

“The cooler weather is just not allowing the plants to grow like they should be,” [Jean Miller, assistant agricultural commissioner in Glenn County] said. “We have the possibility for diseases which we would not normally be having at this time of year, when it should be 80 or 90 degrees.”  …

The statewide snowpack stands at 262 percent of average. Rather than shrinking, as it normally would by this date, the snowpack has held steady and even grown deeper in places with new storms.  …

The state’s reservoirs are brim-full, yet the snowpack still has to melt. This could lead to flooding problems, especially on the San Joaquin and Kings rivers, said Rob Hartman, hydrologist-in-charge at the California-Nevada River Forecast Center, a branch of the National Weather Service.

The peak of spring snowmelt, Hartman said, is probably now delayed to late June or early July – at least a full month late.”  “Researcher says climate change may be cooling California


DOI issues new model-based alarmist report


“Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar today released a report that assesses climate change risks and how these risks could impact water operations, hydropower, flood control, and fish and wildlife in the western United States. The report to Congress, prepared by Interior’s Bureau of Reclamation, represents the first consistent and coordinated assessment of risks to future water supplies across eight major Reclamation river basins, including the Colorado, Rio Grande and Missouri river basins.  …

The report, which responds to requirements under the SECURE Water Act of 2009, shows several increased risks to western United States water resources during the 21st century. Specific projections include:

  • a temperature increase of 5-7 degrees Fahrenheit;
  • a precipitation increase over the northwestern and north-central portions of the western United States and a decrease over the southwestern and south-central areas;
  • a decrease for almost all of the April 1st snowpack, a standard benchmark measurement used to project river basin runoff; and
  • an 8 to 20 percent decrease in average annual stream flow in several river basins, including the Colorado, the Rio Grande, and the San Joaquin.  …

To develop the report, Reclamation used original research and a literature synthesis of existing peer-reviewed studies. Projections of future temperature and precipitation are based on multiple climate models and various projections of future greenhouse gas emissions, technological advancements, and global population estimates.”  “Interior Releases Report Highlighting Impacts of Climate Change to Western Water Resources

Willi Dansgaard passes — L.A. Times botches obit


The L.A. Times notes the passing of pioneer ice core scientist Willi Dansgaard but neglects to mention that the “clear link between carbon dioxide and methane concentrations and global temperatures” found in his ice cores shows that CO2 and CH4 increase follows temperature increase, not vice versa:

Willi Dansgaard, a Danish paleoclimatologist who was the first to recognize that the Earth’s climatic history was stored in the Greenland ice cap, died Jan. 8 in Copenhagen, according to the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen. He was 88.

His research, together with that of Claude Lorius of France and Hans Oeschger of Switzerland, revolutionized scientific knowledge of how the temperature and composition of the atmosphere have changed over the last 150,000 years, demonstrating a clear link between carbon dioxide and methane concentrations and global temperatures.  “Willi Dansgaard dies at 88; scientist who recognized climate record in ice cap

Some things never change


“When confronted with the fact that the current global temperature anomaly is not significantly different than the warmest part of the Medieval Warm Period, the Gorebots will resort to the claim that the rate of warming in the late 20th century was unprecedented.

That claim, like most other Gorebot claims, is false.

Here is the HadCRUT3 global temperature anomaly (GTA) for 1977-2010 plotted with the GTA for 1911-1944”

HadCRUT3 Global Temperature Anomaly 1911-1944 & 1977-2010

“Same as it ever was”… The rate of warming.

Earth the same temperature now as 30 years ago — and decreasing


UAH Update for January 2011: Global Temperatures in Freefall

Roy Spencer shock quote: Snowstorms caused by global cooling!


“No serious climate researcher — including the ones I disagree with — believes global warming can cause colder weather. Unless they have become delusional as a result of some sort of mental illness. One of the hallmarks of global warming theory is LESS extratropical cyclone activity — not more.  …

Global average temperature anomalies (departures from seasonal norms) have been falling precipitously for about 12 months now. Gee, maybe these snowstorms are from global cooling! Someone should look into that! (I know…cold and snow from global cooling sounds crazy….I’m just sayin’….)”  “OMG! ANOTHER GLOBAL WARMING SNOWSTORM!!

NOAA: "adjusting" a decline into an increase


“In the original NOAA US data base, NOAA had an adjustment for urban heat island [UHI] contamination. The combination of longer term station stability and this adjustment made that data base (1221 climate stations), the best in the world. This is what it showed in 1999.

Note even with the super El Nino of 1997/98, the trend from the 1930s/1940s was down.  Indeed James Hansen in 1999 remarked “The U.S. has warmed during the past century, but the warming hardly exceeds year-to-year variability. Indeed, in the U.S. the warmest decade was the 1930s and the warmest year was 1934.”

NOAA and NASA had to constantly explain why their global data sets were showing warming and the US, not so much. NOAA began reducing the UHI around 2000 and then in USHCN version 2 released for the US in 2007 and individual stations in 2009, the urban heat island adjustment was eliminated which resulted in an increase of 0.3F in warming trend since the 1930s.”  “WHY NOAA AND NASA PROCLAMATIONS SHOULD BE IGNORED

Warmest year ever!


“Of the past 10,500 years, 9,100 were warmer than 1934/1998/2010.  Thus, regardless of which year ( 1934, 1998, or 2010) turns out to be the warmest of the past century, that year will rank number 9,099 in the long-term list.”  “2010 – where does it fit in the warmest year list?

CO2 rise "most likely due to warming oceans degassing"


“What happens if we use the plant stomata-derived CO2 instead of the ice core data?

We find that the ~250-year lag time is consistent. CO2 levels peaked 250 years after the Medieval Warm Period peaked and the Little Ice Age cooling began and CO2 bottomed out 240 years after the trough of the Little Ice Age. In a fashion similar to the glacial/interglacial lags in the ice cores, the plant stomata data indicate that CO2 has lagged behind temperature changes by about 250 years over the last millennium. The rise in CO2 that began in 1860 is most likely the result of warming oceans degassing.”  “CO2: Ice Cores vs. Plant Stomata

It's the Sun: solar UV has increased 50% since Little Ice Age


Figure 8. Reconstructed solar irradiance in Ly-α: daily (thin solid line) and smoothed over 11 years (thick line).

Abstract: Solar irradiance is the main external driver of the Earth’s climate. Whereas the total solar irradiance is the main source of energy input into the climate system, solar UV irradiance exerts control over chemical and physical processes in the Earth’s upper atmosphere. The time series of accurate irradiance measurements are, however, relatively short and limit the assessment of the solar contribution to the climate change. Here we reconstruct solar total and spectral irradiance in the range 115–160,000 nm since 1610. The evolution of the solar photospheric magnetic flux, which is a central input to the model, is appraised from the historical record of the sunspot number using a simple but consistent physical model. The model predicts an increase of 1.25 W/m2, or about 0.09%, in the 11-year averaged solar total irradiance since the Maunder minimum. Also, irradiance in individual spectral intervals has generally increased during the past four centuries, the magnitude of the trend being higher toward shorter wavelengths. In particular, the 11-year averaged Ly-α irradiance has increased by almost 50%. An exception is the spectral interval between about 1500 and 2500 nm, where irradiance has slightly decreased (by about 0.02%).”  “Reconstruction of solar spectral irradiance since the Maunder minimum”  H/t The Hockey Schtick