Archive for the ‘UHI’ Category

Phoenix urban heat island: 6 degrees

11/22/2010

[From the Coyote Blog:]

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Major report by Anthony Watts on junk surface stations

05/04/2009

“Executive Summary: Global warming is one of the most serious issues of our times. Some experts claim the rise in temperature during the past century was “unprecedented” and proof that immediate action to reduce human greenhouse gas emissions must begin. Other experts say the warming was very modest and the case for action has yet to be made.

The reliability of data used to document temperature trends is of great importance in this debate. We can’t know for sure if global warming is a problem if we can’t trust the data.

The official record of temperatures in the continental United States comes from a network of 1,221 climate-monitoring stations overseen by the National Weather Service, a department of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Until now, no one had ever conducted a comprehensive review of the quality of the measurement environment of those stations.

During the past few years I recruited a team of more than 650 volunteers to visually inspect and photographically document more than 860 of these temperature stations. We were shocked by what we found.

We found stations located next to the exhaust fans of air conditioning units, surrounded by asphalt parking lots and roads, on blistering-hot rooftops, and near sidewalks and buildings that absorb and radiate heat. We found 68 stations located at wastewater treatment plants, where the process of waste digestion causes temperatures to be higher than in surrounding areas.

In fact, we found that 89 percent of the stations – nearly 9 of every 10 – fail to meet the National Weather Service’s own siting requirements that stations must be 30 meters (about 100 feet) or more away from an artificial heating or radiating/reflecting heat source.

In other words, 9 of every 10 stations are likely reporting higher or rising temperatures because they are badly sited.

It gets worse. We observed that changes in the technology of temperature stations over time also has caused them to report a false warming trend. We found major gaps in the data record that were filled in with data from nearby sites, a practice that propagates and compounds errors. We found that adjustments to the data by both NOAA and another government agency, NASA, cause recent temperatures to look even higher.

The conclusion is inescapable: The U.S. temperature record is unreliable.

The errors in the record exceed by a wide margin the purported rise in temperature of 0.7º C (about 1.2º F) during the twentieth century. Consequently, this record should not be cited as evidence of any trend in temperature that may have occurred across the U.S. during the past century. Since the U.S. record is thought to be “the best in the world,” it follows that the global database is likely similarly compromised and unreliable.

This report presents actual photos of more than 100 temperature stations in the U.S., many of them demonstrating vividly the siting issues we found to be rampant in the network. Photographs of all 865 stations that have been surveyed so far can be found at http://www.surfacestations.org, where station photos can be browsed by state or searched for by name.” “Is the U.S. Temperature Record Reliable?” h/t Roger Pielke Sr.

Major report by Anthony Watts on junk surface stations

05/04/2009

“Executive Summary: Global warming is one of the most serious issues of our times. Some experts claim the rise in temperature during the past century was “unprecedented” and proof that immediate action to reduce human greenhouse gas emissions must begin. Other experts say the warming was very modest and the case for action has yet to be made.

The reliability of data used to document temperature trends is of great importance in this debate. We can’t know for sure if global warming is a problem if we can’t trust the data.

The official record of temperatures in the continental United States comes from a network of 1,221 climate-monitoring stations overseen by the National Weather Service, a department of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Until now, no one had ever conducted a comprehensive review of the quality of the measurement environment of those stations.

During the past few years I recruited a team of more than 650 volunteers to visually inspect and photographically document more than 860 of these temperature stations. We were shocked by what we found.

We found stations located next to the exhaust fans of air conditioning units, surrounded by asphalt parking lots and roads, on blistering-hot rooftops, and near sidewalks and buildings that absorb and radiate heat. We found 68 stations located at wastewater treatment plants, where the process of waste digestion causes temperatures to be higher than in surrounding areas.

In fact, we found that 89 percent of the stations – nearly 9 of every 10 – fail to meet the National Weather Service’s own siting requirements that stations must be 30 meters (about 100 feet) or more away from an artificial heating or radiating/reflecting heat source.

In other words, 9 of every 10 stations are likely reporting higher or rising temperatures because they are badly sited.

It gets worse. We observed that changes in the technology of temperature stations over time also has caused them to report a false warming trend. We found major gaps in the data record that were filled in with data from nearby sites, a practice that propagates and compounds errors. We found that adjustments to the data by both NOAA and another government agency, NASA, cause recent temperatures to look even higher.

The conclusion is inescapable: The U.S. temperature record is unreliable.

The errors in the record exceed by a wide margin the purported rise in temperature of 0.7º C (about 1.2º F) during the twentieth century. Consequently, this record should not be cited as evidence of any trend in temperature that may have occurred across the U.S. during the past century. Since the U.S. record is thought to be “the best in the world,” it follows that the global database is likely similarly compromised and unreliable.

This report presents actual photos of more than 100 temperature stations in the U.S., many of them demonstrating vividly the siting issues we found to be rampant in the network. Photographs of all 865 stations that have been surveyed so far can be found at http://www.surfacestations.org, where station photos can be browsed by state or searched for by name.” “Is the U.S. Temperature Record Reliable?” h/t Roger Pielke Sr.

Polish Academy of Sciences breaks with EU, IPCC

04/30/2009

“5. The current warming is accompanied by an increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere: water vapour is dominant among them, and in smaller quantities there are carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxides and ozone. This has always happened because it is an occurrence that accompanies cyclical warming and cooling. The periodic increase in the number of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, sometimes a value even several times larger than at present, has accompanied previous warming even before man inhabited the Earth.

6. Over the past 400 thousand years – even without human intervention – the level of CO2 in the air, based on the Antarctic ice cores, has already been similar 4 times, and even higher than the current value. At the end of the last ice age, within a time of a few hundred years, the average annual temperature changed over the globe several times, in total, it has gone up by almost 10 °C in the northern hemisphere, therefore the changes mentioned above were incomparably more dramatic than the changes reported today.

7. After a warm period in the past millennium, by the end of the thirteenth century, a cold period had begun and it lasted up to the mid-nineteenth century, and then a warm period in which we are living had begun. The phenomenon observed today, in particular the temporary rise of global temperature, are the result of the natural rhythm of climate change. Warmer and warmer oceans have a smaller ability to absorb carbon dioxide, and reducing the area of the long term permafrost leads to more rapid decomposition of organic compounds in the soil, and thus to increased emissions of greenhouse gases. …

8. A detailed monitoring of climate parameters has been carried out for slightly over 200 years; it only regards parts of continents, which constitute only 28% of the world. Some of the older measuring stations established – as a result of progressive urbanization, in the peripheries of the cities, are now within them. This factor, among other things, is the reason for the rise of the measured values of temperature. The research of the vast areas of the oceans has only been launched 40 years ago. Measurements taken for this kind of short periods of time can not be considered as a firm basis for creating fully reliable models of thermal changes on the surface of the Earth, and their accuracy is difficult to verify. That is why far-reaching restraint needs to be kept regarding blaming, or even giving the biggest credit to man for the increased level of emissions of greenhouse gases, for such a theory has not been proven.” CCNet April 24

Polish Academy of Sciences breaks with EU, IPCC

04/30/2009

“5. The current warming is accompanied by an increase of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere: water vapour is dominant among them, and in smaller quantities there are carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen oxides and ozone. This has always happened because it is an occurrence that accompanies cyclical warming and cooling. The periodic increase in the number of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, sometimes a value even several times larger than at present, has accompanied previous warming even before man inhabited the Earth.

6. Over the past 400 thousand years – even without human intervention – the level of CO2 in the air, based on the Antarctic ice cores, has already been similar 4 times, and even higher than the current value. At the end of the last ice age, within a time of a few hundred years, the average annual temperature changed over the globe several times, in total, it has gone up by almost 10 °C in the northern hemisphere, therefore the changes mentioned above were incomparably more dramatic than the changes reported today.

7. After a warm period in the past millennium, by the end of the thirteenth century, a cold period had begun and it lasted up to the mid-nineteenth century, and then a warm period in which we are living had begun. The phenomenon observed today, in particular the temporary rise of global temperature, are the result of the natural rhythm of climate change. Warmer and warmer oceans have a smaller ability to absorb carbon dioxide, and reducing the area of the long term permafrost leads to more rapid decomposition of organic compounds in the soil, and thus to increased emissions of greenhouse gases. …

8. A detailed monitoring of climate parameters has been carried out for slightly over 200 years; it only regards parts of continents, which constitute only 28% of the world. Some of the older measuring stations established – as a result of progressive urbanization, in the peripheries of the cities, are now within them. This factor, among other things, is the reason for the rise of the measured values of temperature. The research of the vast areas of the oceans has only been launched 40 years ago. Measurements taken for this kind of short periods of time can not be considered as a firm basis for creating fully reliable models of thermal changes on the surface of the Earth, and their accuracy is difficult to verify. That is why far-reaching restraint needs to be kept regarding blaming, or even giving the biggest credit to man for the increased level of emissions of greenhouse gases, for such a theory has not been proven.” CCNet April 24

NASA GISS data stinks

04/11/2009


“The “All China” multi proxy: A reliable work where 8 regions of China where studied and then yield the final China multi proxy temperature line. The “All USA”, NOAA raw, is the official measured USA temperatures minus the official correction, that is, the raw USA temperature dataset. I find it stunning how close All-China and All-USA matches each other, see fig 2! (- a dataset of measured temperature compared to a dataset of proxies). And unlike GISS 2009, the Northern Hemisphere temperature set of 1976 supports the raw trends of US and China. Several of the multi proxy series have been smoothed with a “50 year weighted Gaussian filter” etc. and therefore any bigger dive around 1970 could not be seen in the multi proxy graph.

We see a divergence after 1950 between:

  • GISS 2009 vs. Average of the multi proxies, that is, the temperature evidence in the ground and trees.
  • GISS 2009 vs. USA, CHINA and NH temperatures
  • GISS 2009 vs. Solar activity.

So, at least when comparing with mostly raw datasets, the GISS 2009 dataset could seem to be the source of “the divergence problem” – “the outlier”. Problems for the GISS data set might be incorrect adjustments, problems with UHI [Urban Heat Island effect] and poor measuring sites, see www.surfacestations.org!!” “Making Holocene spaghetti sauce by proxy

NASA GISS data stinks

04/11/2009


“The “All China” multi proxy: A reliable work where 8 regions of China where studied and then yield the final China multi proxy temperature line. The “All USA”, NOAA raw, is the official measured USA temperatures minus the official correction, that is, the raw USA temperature dataset. I find it stunning how close All-China and All-USA matches each other, see fig 2! (- a dataset of measured temperature compared to a dataset of proxies). And unlike GISS 2009, the Northern Hemisphere temperature set of 1976 supports the raw trends of US and China. Several of the multi proxy series have been smoothed with a “50 year weighted Gaussian filter” etc. and therefore any bigger dive around 1970 could not be seen in the multi proxy graph.

We see a divergence after 1950 between:

  • GISS 2009 vs. Average of the multi proxies, that is, the temperature evidence in the ground and trees.
  • GISS 2009 vs. USA, CHINA and NH temperatures
  • GISS 2009 vs. Solar activity.

So, at least when comparing with mostly raw datasets, the GISS 2009 dataset could seem to be the source of “the divergence problem” – “the outlier”. Problems for the GISS data set might be incorrect adjustments, problems with UHI [Urban Heat Island effect] and poor measuring sites, see www.surfacestations.org!!” “Making Holocene spaghetti sauce by proxy

NOAA has abused the public trust — Joe D'Aleo

09/21/2008

“Tom Karl’s following in James Hansen’s big foosteps. As global warming fizzles, they have taken steps to manipulate the data to make it look like it is still occurring. We reported in June the discontinuity between NOAA projecting the world was the eighth warmest June on record for the globe in the 129 years since records began in 1880. At the same time, the University of Alabama, Huntsville came out with their global June assessment and they reported the 9th coldest in the 30 years of records in their data base. In fact, their global mean was actually below the average (base period 1979-1998) with a value of -0.11C (-0.19F). This is a full 1.1F degrees colder than the NOAA guesstimate. The other NASA satellite source, RSS had June as the 13th coldest out of the last 30 years.

Well NOAA again this month was out of line with the satellite assessment with both the August and summer averages for the lower 48 states. In this press release, NOAA’s National Climate Data Center (NCDC) claimed the June-August 2008 summer season was the 22nd warmest on record for the contiguous United States. Also, last month ended as the 39th warmest August for the contiguous (lower 48) United States, based on records dating back to 1895.

Compare that with the UAH MSU based satellite depiction for the lower 48 states. They show the United states had the 13th coldest August in 30 years (with an anomaly of 0.05 for the 1979-1998 average). They also show the summer was the 12th coldest in 30 years with a small anomaly of 0.036F. …

For the globe NOAA claimed 2008 was 0.79 degrees F (0.44 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 60.1 degrees F (15.6 degrees C) and tied with 1995 for the tenth warmest August on record. The UAH MSU data showed the summer as the 11th coldest in the last 30 years with an anomaly of -0.024C (-0.04F). Again NOAA is an outlier with RSS and MSU. The global data lacks an adequate urban adjustment thanks to the intervention of Tom Peterson who uses a flawed paper to justify his claim that urbanization does not affect global trends. As we have shown in the pdf mentioned above it clearly does. In any case, don’t buy NOAA data. Tom Karl and Tom Peterson deserve to join their counterpart at NASA in retirement (if not in court). They have abused the public trust.” “NOAA August and Summer Numbers Again Not Jiving with Satellite Data

"We have a situation"

09/21/2008

Icecap Note: We support Anthony [Watts] and encourage you to write to NASA. We have a situation where we have 3 people. Hansen, Karl and Jones with strong activist ties serving as gatekeepers to the world’s station data bases with free reign to select and adjust that data as they see fit. That alone is an unacceptable position. When they abuse the public trust by refusing to release data, procedures or algorithms (Jones). Allow 87% of the stations to fail government standards for siting and then remove the urban adjustment in the station data bases for change analysis and then lead a biased group of environmental activists in producing the least scientific and most biased document I have ever seen (far worse than the IPCC) in the CCSP (Karl). And continually adjust the data with a clear bias to cool the prior early 20th century warm period and warm recent years and then travel the country and world testifying against new coal power plants, calling train coal cars the equivalent of holocaust death trains and now advocating vandalism to stop the building of coal and nuclear plants that even environment friendly governments realize will be necessary for years to come to provide for the energy and heating needs of the populations (Hansen), it is time to sweep house. Hansen by his actions deserves to go first. We need an independent data group not beholding to anyone to review and reanalyze the old data. We have fortunately the satellite groups UAH and RSS that we can rely on going forward but their data unfortunately starts in 1979 at the beginning of the only two decades in the last 7 where temperatures actually rose!!!” “Note to NASA: Fire Dr. James Hansen, Now!“, IceCap, Political Climate, September 11.

NOAA has abused the public trust — Joe D’Aleo

09/21/2008

“Tom Karl’s following in James Hansen’s big foosteps. As global warming fizzles, they have taken steps to manipulate the data to make it look like it is still occurring. We reported in June the discontinuity between NOAA projecting the world was the eighth warmest June on record for the globe in the 129 years since records began in 1880. At the same time, the University of Alabama, Huntsville came out with their global June assessment and they reported the 9th coldest in the 30 years of records in their data base. In fact, their global mean was actually below the average (base period 1979-1998) with a value of -0.11C (-0.19F). This is a full 1.1F degrees colder than the NOAA guesstimate. The other NASA satellite source, RSS had June as the 13th coldest out of the last 30 years.

Well NOAA again this month was out of line with the satellite assessment with both the August and summer averages for the lower 48 states. In this press release, NOAA’s National Climate Data Center (NCDC) claimed the June-August 2008 summer season was the 22nd warmest on record for the contiguous United States. Also, last month ended as the 39th warmest August for the contiguous (lower 48) United States, based on records dating back to 1895.

Compare that with the UAH MSU based satellite depiction for the lower 48 states. They show the United states had the 13th coldest August in 30 years (with an anomaly of 0.05 for the 1979-1998 average). They also show the summer was the 12th coldest in 30 years with a small anomaly of 0.036F. …

For the globe NOAA claimed 2008 was 0.79 degrees F (0.44 degrees C) above the 20th century mean of 60.1 degrees F (15.6 degrees C) and tied with 1995 for the tenth warmest August on record. The UAH MSU data showed the summer as the 11th coldest in the last 30 years with an anomaly of -0.024C (-0.04F). Again NOAA is an outlier with RSS and MSU. The global data lacks an adequate urban adjustment thanks to the intervention of Tom Peterson who uses a flawed paper to justify his claim that urbanization does not affect global trends. As we have shown in the pdf mentioned above it clearly does. In any case, don’t buy NOAA data. Tom Karl and Tom Peterson deserve to join their counterpart at NASA in retirement (if not in court). They have abused the public trust.” “NOAA August and Summer Numbers Again Not Jiving with Satellite Data